--- title: "Scorch case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Scorch ($110.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.04% from 12 items with odds, observed 40.38% over 6 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1131 rendered: 2026-11-11T20:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Scorch](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1131) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Scorch A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1131?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1131?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1131) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1131?window=all) Price · $110.00 · 110 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.04% · EV $99.04 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 40.38% · 6 openings, odds method Variance · 41.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 167 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 94.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 30 days · 6 openings · below min since tracking started · 6 openings · below min -0.5% 279.3% 559.0% **Small sample.** 6 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1131?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1131?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1131) | 6 | 40.38% ±517.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1131?window=all) | 6 | 40.38% ±517.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $15K 15,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 15.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $8,888 8,888 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 17.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 333 | $6,577 6,577 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 19.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Temukau (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-factory-new) | 1 in 1,047 | $467 467 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-well-worn) | 1 in 1,054 | $241 241 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $148 148 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-freehand-field-tested) | 11.1% | $104 104 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Sticker \| malta (Gold) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-malta-gold-katowice-2019) | 12.7% | $70.56 70.56 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-battlestar-factory-new) | 15.4% | $43.30 43.3 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) | 14.2% | $30.39 30.39 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.4% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [Souvenir MP9 \| Dark Age (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-dark-age-factory-new) | 12.7% | $22.52 22.52 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-bloodsport-factory-new) | 28.8% | $17.38 17.38 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.1% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.16× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1131`, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1131) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $110 | 90.04% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 31.4% contraband 0.2% extraordinary 12.8% Mythical 14.2% #4B69FF 12.7% Classified 28.8% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.04 on average: an expected loss of $9.96 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. 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