--- title: "Katana case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Katana ($66.77) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.06% from 12 items with odds, observed 27.78% over 1 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1132 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:28Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Katana](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1132) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Katana A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1132?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1132?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1132) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1132?window=all) Price · $66.77 · 66.77 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.06% · EV $60.13 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 27.78% · 1 openings, odds method Variance · 7.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 83.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 1 openings · below min 30 days · 1 openings · below min since tracking started · 1 openings · below min -0.5% 287.3% 575.0% **Small sample.** 1 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1132?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1132?window=7d) | 1 | 27.78% ±546.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1132) | 1 | 27.78% ±546.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1132?window=all) | 1 | 27.78% ±546.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000 | $4,165 4,165 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $1,770 1,770 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $1,350 1,350 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,088 1,088 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,091 | $635 635 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 1,024 | $260 260 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-freehand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $149 149 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 11.9% | $99.84 99.84 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 19.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 14.4% | $61.72 61.72 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 14.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 16.7% | $36.48 36.48 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| Team EnVyUs (Foil) \| Cologne 2016 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-envyus-foil-cologne-2016) | 14.8% | $25.64 25.64 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| chopper (Foil) \| London 2018 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chopper-foil-london-2018) | 37.9% | $18.55 18.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1132`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1132) [Sticker | chopper (Foil) | London 2018 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chopper-foil-london-2018) Hidden $66.77 66.77 CSGOBIG\_COIN $18.55 18.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.28x 2026-11-09 13:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $66.77 | 90.06% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.0% epic 0.2% covert knife 0.1% knifes 2.9% #ffd700 11.9% restricted 14.4% classified 16.7% #d32ce6 14.8% #8847FF 37.9% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.06 on average: an expected loss of $9.94 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt