---
title: "Larval case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Larval ($82.55) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.07% from 20 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1137
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:39Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Larval](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1137)

# [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Larval

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1137?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1137?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1137) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1137?window=all)

Price · $82.55 · 82.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 90.07% · EV $74.35 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 6.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1137?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1137?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1137) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1137?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $13.4K 13,420 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $8,632 8,632 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,517 5,517 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $4,314 4,314 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,149 3,149 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,369 2,369 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,082 2,082 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,870 1,870 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,649 1,649 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,343 1,343 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,151 1,151 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 1,072 | $1,035 1,035 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,003 1,003 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $911 911 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2015) | 1 in 30 | $293 293 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-battle-scarred) | 12.9% | $147 147 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 25.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 16.1% | $90.77 90.77 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 19.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| shox (Foil) \| MLG Columbus 2016 sticker · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-shox-foil-mlg-columbus-2016) | 20.2% | $48.16 48.16 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Autograph Capsule \| Challengers (Foil) \| MLG Columbus 2016 other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/autograph-capsule-challengers-foil-mlg-columbus-2016) | 20.1% | $29.00 29 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) | 26.8% | $19.45 19.45 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1137`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1137)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $82.55 | 90.07% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.2% legendary 0.0% Covert 0.1% epic 0.1% classified 39.7% gold 0.1% restricted 0.1% remarkable 3.3% sunny 16.1% #D32CE6 20.2% #B0C3D9 20.1%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.07 on average: an expected loss of $9.93 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt