--- title: "Nibble case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Nibble ($75.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.05% from 12 items with odds, observed 44.35% over 8 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1140 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Nibble](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1140) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Nibble A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1140?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1140?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1140) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1140?window=all) Price · $75.00 · 75 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.05% · EV $67.54 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 44.35% · 8 openings, odds method Variance · 13.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 19.9% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 30 days · 8 openings · below min since tracking started · 8 openings · below min -0.5% 150.0% 300.5% **Small sample.** 8 openings and 1.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1140?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1140?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1140) | 8 | 44.35% ±255.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1140?window=all) | 8 | 44.35% ±255.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $5,582 5,582 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,437 3,437 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $2,705 2,705 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 16.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,900 1,900 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,086 | $1,047 1,047 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $980 980 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,010 | $294 294 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $147 147 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-urban-masked-field-tested) | 14.4% | $91.18 91.18 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 19.4% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.87× | | [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 21.0% | $48.36 48.36 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 15.0% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× | | [Cmdr. Davida 'Goggles' Fernandez \| SEAL Frogman agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/cmdr-davida-goggles-fernandez-seal-frogman) | 21.7% | $29.07 29.07 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.3% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× | | [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) | 37.3% | $19.50 19.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.8% | 5 | 3.0 | 1.67× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1140`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1140) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $75.00 | 90.05% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 0.1% restricted 37.4% covert 21.6% extraordinary 0.1% #ffd700 0.1% gold 4.5% covert knife 14.4% red 21.7% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.05 on average: an expected loss of $9.95 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt