--- title: "Arsenal case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Arsenal ($65.23) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.04% from 14 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1143 rendered: 2026-11-11T19:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Arsenal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1143) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Arsenal A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1143?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1143?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1143) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1143?window=all) Price · $65.23 · 65.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.04% · EV $58.73 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 4.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 24.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1143?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1143?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1143) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1143?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,180 3,180 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,175 2,175 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,487 1,487 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,082 | $590 590 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 1,002 | $257 257 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-freehand-battle-scarred) | 11.4% | $149 149 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 28.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 12.1% | $101 101 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 20.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-cobra-strike-field-tested) | 13.6% | $64.14 64.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 14.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir Five-SeveN \| Orange Peel (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-five-seven-orange-peel-factory-new) | 14.0% | $37.88 37.88 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-well-worn) | 11.9% | $26.69 26.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $19.37 19.37 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-orange-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $14.97 14.97 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| shox \| Cologne 2015 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-shox-cologne-2015) | 1 in 21 | $12.07 12.07 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Shadow Case Key other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-case-key) | 18.5% | $9.87 9.87 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1143`, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1143) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $65.23 | 90.04% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.4% gold 0.1% knifes 11.4% covert knife 12.1% classified 25.4% #5E98D9 14.0% Classified 7.3% restricted 6.0% #4B69FF 4.8% #B0C3D9 18.5% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.04 on average: an expected loss of $9.96 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt