--- title: "Mariposa case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Mariposa ($65.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.05% from 15 items with odds, observed 146.14% over 1 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1150 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Mariposa](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1150) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Mariposa A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1150?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1150?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1150) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1150?window=all) Price · $65.00 · 65 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.05% · EV $58.53 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 146.14% · 1 openings, odds method Variance · 21.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.9% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 1 openings · below min 7 days · 1 openings · below min 30 days · 1 openings · below min since tracking started · 1 openings · below min -0.5% 522.5% 1045.5% **Small sample.** 1 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1150?window=24h) | 1 | 146.14% ±898.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1150?window=7d) | 1 | 146.14% ±898.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1150) | 1 | 146.14% ±898.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1150?window=all) | 1 | 146.14% ±898.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $7,445 7,445 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $5,144 5,144 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,595 1,595 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $995 995 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,060 | $813 813 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $741 741 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $494 494 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,088 | $278 278 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-scorched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 35 | $148 148 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Zeus (Gold) \| London 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zeus-gold-london-2018) | 11.2% | $94.99 94.99 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 18.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-factory-new) | 13.9% | $53.68 53.68 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| bodyy (Foil) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bodyy-foil-krakow-2017) | 15.3% | $31.98 31.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 13.0% | $21.78 21.78 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Chroma Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/chroma-pin) | 10.6% | $15.82 15.82 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-factory-new) | 31.3% | $12.27 12.27 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1150`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1150) [Sticker | Zeus (Gold) | London 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zeus-gold-london-2018) Hidden $65.00 65 CSGOBIG\_COIN $94.99 94.99 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.46x 2026-11-11 11:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $65.00 | 90.05% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.3% classified 31.4% extraordinary 21.9% gold 0.1% covert knife 0.1% Ancient 13.9% #8847FF 15.3% restricted 13.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.05 on average: an expected loss of $9.95 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt