--- title: "Blue Willow case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Blue Willow ($43.66) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.05% from 12 items with odds, observed 79.74% over 4 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1155 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Blue Willow](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1155) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Blue Willow A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1155?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1155?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1155) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1155?window=all) Price · $43.66 · 43.66 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.05% · EV $39.32 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.74% · 4 openings, odds method Variance · 5.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 69.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 4 openings · below min since tracking started · 4 openings · below min -0.5% 156.8% 314.0% **Small sample.** 4 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1155?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1155?window=7d) | 4 | 79.74% ±233.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1155) | 4 | 79.74% ±233.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1155?window=all) | 4 | 79.74% ±233.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,989 2,989 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) | 1 in 1,095 | $943 943 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,049 | $289 289 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Titan (Foil) \| Cluj-Napoca 2015 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-foil-cluj-napoca-2015) | 1 in 22 | $147 147 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 17.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| Keyd Stars (Foil) \| Katowice 2015 sticker · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-keyd-stars-foil-katowice-2015) | 11.0% | $93.16 93.16 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 26.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) | 14.9% | $50.91 50.91 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 19.3% | 2 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) | 12.6% | $30.26 30.26 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Tropical Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tropical-storm-minimal-wear) | 11.5% | $20.30 20.3 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [AUG \| Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) | 1 in 10 | $14.87 14.87 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-shapewood-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $11.47 11.47 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [London 2018 Returning Challengers Autograph Capsule container · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/london-2018-returning-challengers-autograph-capsule) | 1 in 14 | $9.04 9.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Autograph Capsule \| Fnatic \| Cluj-Napoca 2015 other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/autograph-capsule-fnatic-cluj-napoca-2015) | 19.7% | $7.17 7.17 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1155`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1155) [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $43.66 43.66 CSGOBIG\_COIN $50.91 50.91 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.17x 2026-11-05 18:59 UTC [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) Hidden $43.66 43.66 CSGOBIG\_COIN $30.26 30.26 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.69x 2026-11-05 18:59 UTC [Autograph Capsule | Fnatic | Cluj-Napoca 2015 other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/autograph-capsule-fnatic-cluj-napoca-2015) Hidden $43.66 43.66 CSGOBIG\_COIN $7.17 7.17 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.16x 2026-11-05 18:59 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $43.66 43.66 CSGOBIG\_COIN $50.91 50.91 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.17x 2026-11-05 18:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $43.66 | 90.05% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.2% classified 8.6% exotic 4.5% #D32CE6 11.0% restricted 14.9% #d32ee6 12.6% #5E98D9 11.5% mil spec 10.0% #B0C3D9 26.8% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.05 on average: an expected loss of $9.95 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt