---
title: "Overload case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Overload ($75.52) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.06% from 12 items with odds, observed 78.58% over 3 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1156
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:00Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Overload](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1156)

# [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Overload

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1156?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1156?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1156) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1156?window=all)

Price · $75.52 · 75.52 CSGOBIG\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 90.06% · EV $68.02 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 78.58% · 3 openings, odds method

Variance · 13.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 1 openings · below min

7 days · 3 openings · below min

30 days · 3 openings · below min

since tracking started · 3 openings · below min

-0.5% 426.0% 852.5%

**Small sample.** 3 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1156?window=24h) | 1 | 138.23% ±713.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1156?window=7d) | 3 | 78.58% ±412.1 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1156) | 3 | 78.58% ±412.1 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1156?window=all) | 3 | 78.58% ±412.1 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $7,967 7,967 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,644 2,644 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,270 1,270 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $871 871 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Run and Hide (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-factory-new) | 1 in 1,037 | $466 466 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-boreal-forest-well-worn) | 1 in 1,047 | $241 241 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $148 148 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) | 12.4% | $104 104 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 19.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [Sticker \| London Conspiracy (Holo) \| Cologne 2014 sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-london-conspiracy-holo-cologne-2014) | 14.2% | $70.50 70.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 14.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Sticker \| Freeman (Gold) \| Berlin 2019 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-freeman-gold-berlin-2019) | 16.3% | $43.27 43.27 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 15.0% | $30.38 30.38 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [Souvenir MP9 \| Dark Age (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-dark-age-factory-new) | 35.2% | $22.52 22.52 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.6% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1156`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1156)

[StatTrak™ Galil AR | Sugar Rush (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) Hidden $75.52 75.52 CSGOBIG\_COIN $104 104 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.38x 2026-11-11 01:09 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-fever-dream-factory-new) Hidden $75.52 75.52 CSGOBIG\_COIN $30.38 30.38 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.40x 2026-11-04 19:59 UTC

[Sticker | Freeman (Gold) | Berlin 2019 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-freeman-gold-berlin-2019) [Default Name](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Default%20Name) $75.52 75.52 CSGOBIG\_COIN $43.27 43.27 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.57x 2026-11-04 19:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $75.52 | 90.06% | 12 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.7% classified 18.6% covert knife 0.1% #8847ff 14.2% #EB4B4B 16.3% Classified 15.0% #4B69FF 35.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.06 on average: an expected loss of $9.94 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt