--- title: "Lava Hatch case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Lava Hatch ($3.09) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.11% from 11 items with odds, observed 22.33% over 224 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1165 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Lava Hatch](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1165) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Lava Hatch A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1165?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1165?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1165) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1165?window=all) Price · $3.09 · 3.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.11% · EV $2.78 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 22.33% · 224 openings, odds method Variance · 643.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 2,000 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 42 openings · below min 7 days · 176 openings · below min 30 days · 224 openings · below min since tracking started · 224 openings · below min -0.5% 395.0% 790.5% **Small sample.** 224 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1165?window=24h) | 42 | 22.33% ±767.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1165?window=7d) | 176 | 22.33% ±374.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1165) | 224 | 22.33% ±332.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1165?window=all) | 224 | 22.33% ±332.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 224 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,300 5,300 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 19.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $3,400 3,400 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,600 2,600 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,100 2,100 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,800 1,800 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,650 1,650 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,500 1,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,200 1,200 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $900 900 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $500 500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Witch sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-witch) | 99.9% | $0.69 0.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 24.8% | 224 | 223.8 | 1.00× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1165`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1165) [Sticker | Witch sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-witch) Hidden $3.09 3.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.69 0.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.22x 2026-11-11 09:59 UTC [Sticker | Witch sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-witch) Hidden $3.09 3.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.69 0.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.22x 2026-11-11 09:59 UTC [Sticker | Witch sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-witch) Hidden $3.09 3.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.69 0.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.22x 2026-11-11 09:59 UTC [Sticker | Witch sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-witch) Hidden $3.09 3.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.69 0.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.22x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC [Sticker | Witch sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-witch) Hidden $3.09 3.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.69 0.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.22x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC [Sticker | Witch sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-witch) Hidden $3.09 3.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.69 0.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.22x 2026-11-11 08:39 UTC [Sticker | Witch sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-witch) Hidden $3.09 3.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.69 0.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.22x 2026-11-11 08:39 UTC [Sticker | Witch sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-witch) [szticky](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/szticky) $3.09 3.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.69 0.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.22x 2026-11-11 08:39 UTC [Sticker | Witch sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-witch) Hidden $3.09 3.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.69 0.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.22x 2026-11-11 08:39 UTC [Sticker | Witch sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-witch) Hidden $3.09 3.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.69 0.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.22x 2026-11-11 02:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.09 | 90.11% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% epic 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% Covert 0.0% Immortal 0.0% High Grade 99.9% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.11 on average: an expected loss of $9.89 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt