--- title: "Sugar Bite case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Sugar Bite ($101.26) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 18 items with odds, observed 14.81% over 21 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1169 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Sugar Bite](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1169) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Sugar Bite A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1169?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1169?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1169) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1169?window=all) Price · $101.26 · 101 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $91.13 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 14.81% · 21 openings, odds method Variance · 35.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 47 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 15 openings · below min 30 days · 21 openings · below min since tracking started · 21 openings · below min -0.5% 157.3% 315.0% **Small sample.** 21 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1169?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1169?window=7d) | 15 | 11.85% ±302.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1169) | 21 | 14.81% ±255.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1169?window=all) | 21 | 14.81% ±255.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [EMS Katowice 2014 Challengers other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-challengers) | 1 in 10,000 | $25K 25,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $18K 18,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 5,000 | $14K 14,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $12K 12,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 3,333 | $10.3K 10,250 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $8,500 8,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $7,200 7,200 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $6,000 6,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $3,900 3,900 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $2,600 2,600 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,850 1,850 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,450 1,450 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 15.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,000 1,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $500 500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 72 | $300 300 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $170 170 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $110 110 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.0% | 2 | 0.5 | — | | [Sticker \| Dark Water Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dark-water-surf-ava-foil) | 90.0% | $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.9% | 19 | 18.9 | 1.01× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1169`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1169) [Sticker | Dark Water Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dark-water-surf-ava-foil) Hidden $101 101 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-10 10:19 UTC [Sticker | Dark Water Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dark-water-surf-ava-foil) Hidden $101 101 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-10 10:19 UTC [Sticker | Dark Water Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dark-water-surf-ava-foil) Hidden $101 101 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-10 10:19 UTC [Sticker | Dark Water Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dark-water-surf-ava-foil) Hidden $101 101 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-07 21:59 UTC [Sticker | Dark Water Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dark-water-surf-ava-foil) Hidden $101 101 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-07 21:59 UTC [Sticker | Dark Water Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dark-water-surf-ava-foil) Hidden $101 101 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-07 21:59 UTC [Sticker | Dark Water Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dark-water-surf-ava-foil) [Default Name](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Default%20Name) $101 101 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-07 21:59 UTC [Sticker | Dark Water Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dark-water-surf-ava-foil) Hidden $101 101 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-07 21:59 UTC [Sticker | Dark Water Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dark-water-surf-ava-foil) Hidden $101 101 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-07 21:59 UTC [Sticker | Dark Water Surf Ava (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dark-water-surf-ava-foil) Hidden $101 101 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-06 16:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $101 | 90.00% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed base 0.0% covert 8.8% contraband 0.1% extraordinary 0.1% restricted 1.0% exotic 90.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt