---
title: "Birdie case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Birdie ($55.72) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.07% from 13 items with odds, observed 69.22% over 2 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1181
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:33Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Birdie](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1181)

# [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Birdie

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1181?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1181?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1181) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1181?window=all)

Price · $55.72 · 55.72 CSGOBIG\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 90.07% · EV $50.19 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 69.22% · 2 openings, odds method

Variance · 21.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 82.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 2 openings · below min

30 days · 2 openings · below min

since tracking started · 2 openings · below min

-0.5% 359.0% 718.5%

**Small sample.** 2 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1181?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1181?window=7d) | 2 | 69.22% ±648.4 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1181) | 2 | 69.22% ±648.4 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1181?window=all) | 2 | 69.22% ±648.4 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $10.4K 10,415 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $4,849 4,849 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,691 2,691 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,449 1,449 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,055 | $782 782 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 1,012 | $277 277 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $148 148 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-field-tested) | 12.5% | $95.97 95.97 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 24.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Toybox (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-toybox-factory-new) | 15.1% | $54.81 54.81 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 16.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-victoria-battle-scarred) | 15.6% | $32.46 32.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-factory-new) | 12.9% | $22.33 22.33 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Sticker \| Edward (Foil) \| Cluj-Napoca 2015 sticker · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-edward-foil-cluj-napoca-2015) | 10.3% | $16.18 16.18 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-field-tested) | 29.0% | $12.53 12.53 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1181`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1181)

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Toybox (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-toybox-factory-new) Hidden $55.72 55.72 CSGOBIG\_COIN $54.81 54.81 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.98x 2026-11-06 23:19 UTC

[StatTrak™ P250 | Muertos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-factory-new) Hidden $55.72 55.72 CSGOBIG\_COIN $22.33 22.33 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.40x 2026-11-06 23:19 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $55.72 | 90.07% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.1% epic 0.0% covert 15.8% Covert 0.1% #EB4B4B 0.1% sunny 4.2% pink 41.5% classified 28.0% #D32CE6 10.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.07 on average: an expected loss of $9.93 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt