--- title: "Watcher case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Watcher ($41.66) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 13 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1185 rendered: 2026-11-11T16:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Watcher](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1185) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Watcher A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1185?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1185?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1185) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1185?window=all) Price · $41.66 · 41.66 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $37.49 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 8.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 33 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 91.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1185?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1185?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1185) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1185?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $703 703 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 56.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · #EB4B4B · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 630 | $531 531 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| ANGE1 (Gold) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ange1-gold-katowice-2019) | 1 in 202 | $286 286 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-scorched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 104 | $148 148 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $94.00 94 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Recoil AWP (Blood Red) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-recoil-awp-blood-red) | 1 in 36 | $51.63 51.63 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $31.03 31.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| HooXi (Gold) \| Paris 2023 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hooxi-gold-paris-2023) | 1 in 15 | $20.85 20.85 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| device \| Cologne 2015 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-device-cologne-2015) | 1 in 11 | $15.21 15.21 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir MP9 \| Dark Age (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-dark-age-field-tested) | 12.1% | $11.71 11.71 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Autograph Capsule \| Fnatic \| Atlanta 2017 other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/autograph-capsule-fnatic-atlanta-2017) | 15.2% | $9.29 9.29 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-well-worn) | 19.2% | $7.36 7.36 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P250 \| Muertos (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-well-worn) | 23.9% | $5.91 5.91 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1185`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1185) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $41.66 | 90.00% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 3.0% #EB4B4B 7.4% covert 26.3% #B0C3D9 18.0% Rare 9.3% mil spec 12.1% #d32ce6 23.9% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt