--- title: "Sporeshift case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Sporeshift ($42.55) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.94% from 13 items with odds, observed 96.87% over 8 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1188 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Sporeshift](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1188) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Sporeshift A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1188?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1188?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1188) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1188?window=all) Price · $42.55 · 42.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 89.94% · EV $38.27 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.87% · 8 openings, odds method Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.7% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 69.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 8 openings · below min 30 days · 8 openings · below min since tracking started · 8 openings · below min -0.5% 99.5% 199.5% **Small sample.** 8 openings and 1.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1188?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1188?window=7d) | 8 | 96.87% ±102.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1188) | 8 | 96.87% ±102.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1188?window=all) | 8 | 96.87% ±102.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,311 1,311 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-field-tested) | 1 in 1,028 | $943 943 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,095 | $226 226 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Titan (Foil) \| Cluj-Napoca 2015 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-foil-cluj-napoca-2015) | 1 in 17 | $147 147 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 22.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Sticker \| Keyd Stars (Foil) \| Katowice 2015 sticker · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-keyd-stars-foil-katowice-2015) | 10.6% | $93.16 93.16 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 25.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) | 14.3% | $50.91 50.91 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 19.0% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.75× | | [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) | 11.9% | $30.26 30.26 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.4% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Tropical Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tropical-storm-minimal-wear) | 10.9% | $20.30 20.3 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.8% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [AUG \| Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $14.87 14.87 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.7% | 3 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-shapewood-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $11.47 11.47 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [London 2018 Returning Challengers Autograph Capsule container · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/london-2018-returning-challengers-autograph-capsule) | 1 in 15 | $9.04 9.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Autograph Capsule \| Fnatic \| Cluj-Napoca 2015 other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/autograph-capsule-fnatic-cluj-napoca-2015) | 1 in 18 | $7.17 7.17 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [CS:GO Weapon Case 3 other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs-go-weapon-case-3) | 16.3% | $5.74 5.74 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.5% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1188`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1188) [AUG | Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) Hidden $42.55 42.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN $14.87 14.87 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.35x 2026-11-10 10:28 UTC [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) Hidden $42.55 42.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN $30.26 30.26 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.71x 2026-11-10 10:28 UTC [Sticker | Titan (Foil) | Cluj-Napoca 2015 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-foil-cluj-napoca-2015) Hidden $42.55 42.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN $147 147 CSGOBIG\_COIN 3.46x 2026-11-06 05:29 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $42.55 42.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN $50.91 50.91 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.20x 2026-11-06 05:29 UTC [CS:GO Weapon Case 3 other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/cs-go-weapon-case-3) Hidden $42.55 42.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.74 5.74 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-06 05:29 UTC [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) Hidden $42.55 42.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN $50.91 50.91 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.20x 2026-11-06 05:29 UTC [AUG | Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) [LouisInRussian](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/LouisInRussian) $42.55 42.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN $14.87 14.87 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.35x 2026-11-06 05:29 UTC [AUG | Wings (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-wings-factory-new) Hidden $42.55 42.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN $14.87 14.87 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.35x 2026-11-06 05:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $42.55 | 89.94% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.2% classified 8.1% exotic 5.8% #D32CE6 10.6% restricted 14.3% #d32ee6 11.9% #5E98D9 10.9% mil spec 9.5% #B0C3D9 28.7% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.94 on average: an expected loss of $10.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt