--- title: "Desire case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Desire ($92.55) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.04% from 15 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1190 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Desire](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1190) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Desire A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1190?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1190?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1190) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1190?window=all) Price · $92.55 · 92.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.04% · EV $83.33 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 7.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 21.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 66.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1190?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1190?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1190) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1190?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $8,496 8,496 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $4,544 4,544 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,429 | $3,068 3,068 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,478 2,478 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,741 1,741 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,294 1,294 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Freehand (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 1,053 | $499 499 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir UMP-45 \| Gunsmoke (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-gunsmoke-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $247 247 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| 3DMAX (Foil) \| Katowice 2015 sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-3dmax-foil-katowice-2015) | 17.5% | $149 149 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 31.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-black-laminate-field-tested) | 12.2% | $103 103 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 15.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 12.2% | $68.45 68.45 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-guardian-battle-scarred) | 10.4% | $41.13 41.13 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $29.05 29.05 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Graven (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $21.38 21.38 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) | 29.1% | $16.47 16.47 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1190`, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1190) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $92.55 | 90.04% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.2% extraordinary 0.2% classified 22.7% covert knife 12.3% #5E98D9 3.6% Legendary 17.5% restricted 14.4% Restricted 29.1% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.04 on average: an expected loss of $9.96 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt