--- title: "Focus case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Focus ($42.55) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.92% from 12 items with odds, observed 94.17% over 5 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1192 rendered: 2026-11-11T22:57Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Focus](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1192) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Focus A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1192?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1192?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1192) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1192?window=all) Price · $42.55 · 42.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 89.92% · EV $38.26 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.17% · 5 openings, odds method Variance · 5.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 13.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 71.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 5 openings · below min 30 days · 5 openings · below min since tracking started · 5 openings · below min -0.5% 148.0% 296.5% **Small sample.** 5 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1192?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1192?window=7d) | 5 | 94.17% ±201.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1192) | 5 | 94.17% ±201.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1192?window=all) | 5 | 94.17% ±201.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,472 2,472 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,300 1,300 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,044 | $1,047 1,047 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,080 | $227 227 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Snake Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $147 147 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.6% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $91.18 91.18 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 23.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 14.3% | $48.36 48.36 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 18.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Cmdr. Davida 'Goggles' Fernandez \| SEAL Frogman agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/cmdr-davida-goggles-fernandez-seal-frogman) | 16.9% | $29.07 29.07 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Sticker \| disco doplan (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-disco-doplan-foil-atlanta-2017) | 15.9% | $19.51 19.51 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.1% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 10.6% | $14.25 14.25 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.9% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Souvenir USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-orange-anolis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $10.98 10.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-well-worn) | 19.3% | $8.61 8.61 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.3% | 1 | 1.0 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1192`, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1192) [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) Hidden $42.55 42.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN $14.25 14.25 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.33x 2026-11-05 18:59 UTC [AWP | Snake Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-well-worn) Hidden $42.55 42.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN $147 147 CSGOBIG\_COIN 3.45x 2026-11-05 18:59 UTC [Souvenir USP-S | Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-orange-anolis-minimal-wear) Hidden $42.55 42.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN $10.98 10.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.26x 2026-11-05 18:59 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-well-worn) Hidden $42.55 42.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN $8.61 8.61 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.20x 2026-11-05 18:59 UTC [Sticker | disco doplan (Foil) | Atlanta 2017 sticker · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-disco-doplan-foil-atlanta-2017) Hidden $42.55 42.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN $19.51 19.51 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.46x 2026-11-05 18:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $42.55 | 89.92% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 14.6% extraordinary 0.1% mil spec 3.5% covert knife 9.8% red 16.9% #D32CE6 15.9% Covert 10.6% Restricted 9.4% classified 19.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.92 on average: an expected loss of $10.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt