--- title: "Maneki Neko case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Maneki Neko ($63.55) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.97% from 14 items with odds, observed 64.67% over 3 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1194 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Maneki Neko](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1194) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Maneki Neko A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1194?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1194?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1194) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1194?window=all) Price · $63.55 · 63.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 89.97% · EV $57.17 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 64.67% · 3 openings, odds method Variance · 148.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 3 openings · below min 30 days · 3 openings · below min since tracking started · 3 openings · below min -0.5% 721.0% 1442.5% **Small sample.** 3 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1194?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1194?window=7d) | 3 | 64.67% ±1377.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1194) | 3 | 64.67% ±1377.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1194?window=all) | 3 | 64.67% ±1377.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $73.6K 73,646 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $14.7K 14,707 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 3,333 | $5,265 5,265 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,502 2,502 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 1,050 | $817 817 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,076 | $279 279 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $148 148 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 22.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 11.3% | $95.08 95.08 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 18.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-well-worn) | 14.1% | $53.74 53.74 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.2% | 2 | 0.4 | — | | [Nova \| Sobek's Bite (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sobeks-bite-factory-new) | 14.1% | $32.01 32.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-battlestar-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $21.81 21.81 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Chroma Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/chroma-pin) | 1 in 10 | $15.82 15.82 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $12.27 12.27 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [P90 \| Trigon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-battle-scarred) | 21.8% | $9.75 9.75 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1194`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1194) [Chroma Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/chroma-pin) Hidden $63.55 63.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN $15.82 15.82 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.25x 2026-11-07 15:29 UTC [AK-47 | Head Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-well-worn) Hidden $63.55 63.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN $53.74 53.74 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.85x 2026-11-07 15:29 UTC [AK-47 | Head Shot (Well-Worn) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-head-shot-well-worn) [Mexi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Mexi) $63.55 63.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN $53.74 53.74 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.85x 2026-11-07 15:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $63.55 | 89.97% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 0.0% covert 23.6% sunny 8.7% Ancient 14.1% violet 14.1% extraordinary 9.8% classified 29.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.97 on average: an expected loss of $10.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt