--- title: "Peak case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Peak ($73.55) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.03% from 12 items with odds, observed 123.97% over 3 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1196 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:15Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Peak](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1196) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Peak A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1196?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1196?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1196) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1196?window=all) Price · $73.55 · 73.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.03% · EV $66.22 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 123.97% · 3 openings, odds method Variance · 32.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 3 openings · below min 30 days · 3 openings · below min since tracking started · 3 openings · below min -0.5% 382.0% 764.5% **Small sample.** 3 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1196?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1196?window=7d) | 3 | 123.97% ±639.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1196) | 3 | 123.97% ±639.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1196?window=all) | 3 | 123.97% ±639.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $10.4K 10,415 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 15.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 667 | $6,423 6,423 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 14.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,520 1,520 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,102 | $1,046 1,046 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,026 | $294 294 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $147 147 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 19.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-urban-masked-field-tested) | 11.5% | $91.18 91.18 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 15.8% | 3 | 0.3 | — | | [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 16.7% | $48.36 48.36 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Cmdr. Davida 'Goggles' Fernandez \| SEAL Frogman agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/cmdr-davida-goggles-fernandez-seal-frogman) | 17.3% | $29.07 29.07 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) | 16.3% | $19.50 19.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 10.9% | $14.25 14.25 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Souvenir USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-orange-anolis-minimal-wear) | 17.8% | $10.98 10.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1196`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1196) [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-urban-masked-field-tested) Hidden $73.55 73.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN $91.18 91.18 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.24x 2026-11-05 11:19 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-urban-masked-field-tested) Hidden $73.55 73.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN $91.18 91.18 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.24x 2026-11-05 11:19 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-urban-masked-field-tested) Hidden $73.55 73.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN $91.18 91.18 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.24x 2026-11-05 11:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $73.55 | 90.03% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.1% covert 17.2% gold 8.9% covert knife 11.5% red 17.3% restricted 16.3% Covert 10.9% Restricted 17.8% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.03 on average: an expected loss of $9.97 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt