--- title: "Jelly case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Jelly ($28.58) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.12% from 12 items with odds, observed 47.97% over 1 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1207 rendered: 2026-11-11T20:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Jelly](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1207) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Jelly A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1207?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1207?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1207) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1207?window=all) Price · $28.58 · 28.58 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.12% · EV $25.76 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 47.97% · 1 openings, odds method Variance · 3.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 1 openings · below min 7 days · 1 openings · below min 30 days · 1 openings · below min since tracking started · 1 openings · below min -0.5% 218.0% 436.5% **Small sample.** 1 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1207?window=24h) | 1 | 47.97% ±388.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1207?window=7d) | 1 | 47.97% ±388.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1207) | 1 | 47.97% ±388.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1207?window=all) | 1 | 47.97% ±388.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $888 888 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) | 1 in 299 | $676 676 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 118 | $266 266 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-freehand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $149 149 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Survival Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $98.39 98.39 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $59.15 59.15 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $35.37 35.37 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| Team Immunity (Foil) \| Cologne 2015 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-immunity-foil-cologne-2015) | 1 in 11 | $24.39 24.39 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-decimator-battle-scarred) | 12.8% | $17.70 17.7 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fairy-tale-battle-scarred) | 16.5% | $13.71 13.71 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.8% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-factory-new) | 20.6% | $10.95 10.95 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-amber-fade-field-tested) | 25.5% | $8.86 8.86 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1207`, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1207) [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fairy-tale-battle-scarred) Hidden $28.58 28.58 CSGOBIG\_COIN $13.71 13.71 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.48x 2026-11-11 14:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $28.58 | 90.12% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 10.3% classified 29.6% restricted 21.5% knifes 1.5% covert knife 2.3% exotic 9.3% mil spec 25.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.12 on average: an expected loss of $9.88 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt