--- title: "Mystic Lamp case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Mystic Lamp ($31.22) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.07% from 15 items with odds, observed 53.01% over 6 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1212 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Mystic Lamp](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1212) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Mystic Lamp A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1212?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1212?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1212) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1212?window=all) Price · $31.22 · 31.22 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.07% · EV $28.12 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · 53.01% · 6 openings, odds method Variance · 2.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 21.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 6 openings · below min 30 days · 6 openings · below min since tracking started · 6 openings · below min -0.5% 90.8% 182.0% **Small sample.** 6 openings and 1.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1212?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1212?window=7d) | 6 | 53.01% ±128.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1212) | 6 | 53.01% ±128.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1212?window=all) | 6 | 53.01% ±128.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,700 2,700 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,082 | $991 991 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,078 | $291 291 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Fnatic (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-foil-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 58 | $147 147 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $92.50 92.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 27.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-well-worn) | 11.6% | $49.84 49.84 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 20.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) | 14.7% | $29.70 29.7 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 15.6% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 10.4% | $19.91 19.91 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ AUG \| Wings (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-wings-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $14.55 14.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-ghost-crusader-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $11.21 11.21 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $8.81 8.81 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $6.98 6.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.5% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [AUG \| Chameleon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $5.58 5.58 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Scumbria (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-scumbria-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $4.48 4.48 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-minimal-wear) | 13.9% | $3.60 3.6 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.8% | 2 | 0.8 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1212`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1212) [StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-well-worn) Hidden $31.22 31.22 CSGOBIG\_COIN $49.84 49.84 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.60x 2026-11-06 04:09 UTC [R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-minimal-wear) Hidden $31.22 31.22 CSGOBIG\_COIN $3.60 3.6 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.12x 2026-11-06 04:09 UTC [AUG | Chameleon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-battle-scarred) Hidden $31.22 31.22 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.58 5.58 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.18x 2026-11-06 04:09 UTC [USP-S | Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) [LouisInRussian](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/LouisInRussian) $31.22 31.22 CSGOBIG\_COIN $29.70 29.7 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.95x 2026-11-06 04:09 UTC [MAC-10 | Propaganda (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-field-tested) Hidden $31.22 31.22 CSGOBIG\_COIN $6.98 6.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.22x 2026-11-06 04:09 UTC [R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-minimal-wear) Hidden $31.22 31.22 CSGOBIG\_COIN $3.60 3.6 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.12x 2026-11-06 04:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $31.22 | 90.07% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 7.0% extraordinary 0.1% #d32ce6 1.7% covert knife 8.3% Covert 11.6% mil spec 14.7% classified 10.4% milspec 13.4% Restricted 8.0% #d32ee6 5.9% red 5.0% violet 13.9% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.07 on average: an expected loss of $9.93 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt