--- title: "Rotten Luck case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Rotten Luck ($48.34) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.06% from 12 items with odds, observed 43.26% over 3 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1213 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:13Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Rotten Luck](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1213) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Rotten Luck A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1213?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1213?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1213) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1213?window=all) Price · $48.34 · 48.34 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.06% · EV $43.53 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 43.26% · 3 openings, odds method Variance · 5.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.7% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 72.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 3 openings · below min 30 days · 3 openings · below min since tracking started · 3 openings · below min -0.5% 148.3% 297.0% **Small sample.** 3 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1213?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1213?window=7d) | 3 | 43.26% ±253.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1213) | 3 | 43.26% ±253.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1213?window=all) | 3 | 43.26% ±253.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,180 3,180 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 1,099 | $636 636 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 1,031 | $261 261 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $149 149 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 19.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 10 | $99.86 99.86 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 22.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 11.6% | $61.72 61.72 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 16.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Sticker \| k0nfig (Foil) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-k0nfig-foil-krakow-2017) | 13.9% | $36.50 36.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Sticker \| Team EnVyUs (Foil) \| Cologne 2016 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-envyus-foil-cologne-2016) | 12.3% | $25.64 25.64 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [Sticker \| chopper (Foil) \| London 2018 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chopper-foil-london-2018) | 10.7% | $18.55 18.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.6% | 2 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-big-iron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $14.30 14.3 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-shapewood-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $11.47 11.47 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AUG \| Torque (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-battle-scarred) | 21.2% | $9.38 9.38 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1213`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1213) [Sticker | chopper (Foil) | London 2018 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chopper-foil-london-2018) Hidden $48.34 48.34 CSGOBIG\_COIN $18.55 18.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.38x 2026-11-09 10:39 UTC [Sticker | Team EnVyUs (Foil) | Cologne 2016 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-envyus-foil-cologne-2016) [✪ G0DBLiiZiKE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/%E2%9C%AA%20G0DBLiiZiKE) $48.34 48.34 CSGOBIG\_COIN $25.64 25.64 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.53x 2026-11-09 10:39 UTC [Sticker | chopper (Foil) | London 2018 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chopper-foil-london-2018) Hidden $48.34 48.34 CSGOBIG\_COIN $18.55 18.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.38x 2026-11-09 10:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $48.34 | 90.06% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.8% restricted 32.9% Covert 5.8% #8847FF 24.6% #d32ce6 12.3% classified 14.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.06 on average: an expected loss of $9.94 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt