--- title: "Pop Off case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Pop Off ($24.67) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.11% from 14 items with odds, observed 51.22% over 3 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1214 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:28Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Pop Off](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1214) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Pop Off A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1214?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1214?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1214) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1214?window=all) Price · $24.67 · 24.67 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.11% · EV $22.23 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 51.22% · 3 openings, odds method Variance · 6.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 15.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 3 openings · below min 30 days · 3 openings · below min since tracking started · 3 openings · below min -0.5% 165.5% 331.5% **Small sample.** 3 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1214?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1214?window=7d) | 3 | 51.22% ±279.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1214) | 3 | 51.22% ±279.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1214?window=all) | 3 | 51.22% ±279.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,488 1,488 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 329 | $968 968 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-scorched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 157 | $251 251 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-freehand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 94 | $149 149 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $103 103 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-mehndi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $67.37 67.37 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $40.52 40.52 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Red Rock (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-red-rock-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $28.42 28.42 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| Magisk (Gold) \| Rio 2022 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-magisk-gold-rio-2022) | 1 in 13 | $20.92 20.92 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $16.08 16.08 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.2% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [Autograph Capsule \| G2 Esports \| MLG Columbus 2016 other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/autograph-capsule-g2-esports-mlg-columbus-2016) | 12.3% | $13.00 13 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.2% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [Horizon Case Key other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/horizon-case-key) | 15.0% | $10.66 10.66 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Autograph Capsule \| Team SoloMid \| Cologne 2015 other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/autograph-capsule-team-solomid-cologne-2015) | 18.1% | $8.83 8.83 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Curse (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-curse-minimal-wear) | 21.7% | $7.35 7.35 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1214`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1214) [Autograph Capsule | Team SoloMid | Cologne 2015 other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/autograph-capsule-team-solomid-cologne-2015) Hidden $24.67 24.67 CSGOBIG\_COIN $8.83 8.83 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.36x 2026-11-06 15:19 UTC [M4A4 | The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) Hidden $24.67 24.67 CSGOBIG\_COIN $16.08 16.08 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.65x 2026-11-06 15:19 UTC [Autograph Capsule | G2 Esports | MLG Columbus 2016 other · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/autograph-capsule-g2-esports-mlg-columbus-2016) [tody](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/tody) $24.67 24.67 CSGOBIG\_COIN $13.00 13 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.53x 2026-11-06 15:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $24.67 | 90.11% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.9% #EB4B4B 7.9% covert knife 0.6% knifes 1.1% classified 7.9% Restricted 5.6% #B0C3D9 45.3% restricted 21.7% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.11 on average: an expected loss of $9.89 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt