--- title: "Lucky Strike case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lucky Strike ($95.33) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.03% from 17 items with odds, observed 31.10% over 4 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1216 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Lucky Strike](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1216) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Lucky Strike A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1216?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1216?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1216) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1216?window=all) Price · $95.33 · 95.33 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.03% · EV $85.83 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 31.10% · 4 openings, odds method Variance · 20.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 77.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 4 openings · below min 30 days · 4 openings · below min since tracking started · 4 openings · below min -0.5% 236.8% 474.0% **Small sample.** 4 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1216?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1216?window=7d) | 4 | 31.10% ±442.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1216) | 4 | 31.10% ±442.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1216?window=all) | 4 | 31.10% ±442.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $11.5K 11,537 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $7,150 7,150 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $5,800 5,800 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 667 | $3,600 3,600 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 667 | $1,952 1,952 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-well-worn) | 1 in 667 | $1,490 1,490 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 400 | $1,192 1,192 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $894 894 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $715 715 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-well-worn) | 1 in 1,060 | $672 672 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,018 | $265 265 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $148 148 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 14.6% | $98.28 98.28 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 16.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-duality-minimal-wear) | 13.9% | $58.89 58.89 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) | 15.6% | $35.26 35.26 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-minimal-wear) | 14.6% | $24.35 24.35 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 33.4% | $17.68 17.68 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.9% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.50× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1216`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1216) [USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) [Rassel](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Rassel) $95.33 95.33 CSGOBIG\_COIN $17.68 17.68 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.19x 2026-11-09 18:00 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Duality (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-duality-minimal-wear) Hidden $95.33 95.33 CSGOBIG\_COIN $58.89 58.89 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.62x 2026-11-09 18:00 UTC [USP-S | Overgrowth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-minimal-wear) Hidden $95.33 95.33 CSGOBIG\_COIN $24.35 24.35 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.26x 2026-11-09 18:00 UTC [USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) Hidden $95.33 95.33 CSGOBIG\_COIN $17.68 17.68 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.19x 2026-11-09 18:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $95.33 | 90.03% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 54.8% legendary 0.1% extraordinary 0.1% classified 0.1% rare 0.3% #EB4B4B 0.5% pink 13.9% restricted 30.2% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.03 on average: an expected loss of $9.97 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt