--- title: "Incognito case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Incognito ($143.55) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.04% from 20 items with odds, observed 13.49% over 1 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1217 rendered: 2026-11-11T14:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Incognito](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1217) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Incognito A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1217?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1217?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1217) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1217?window=all) Price · $143.55 · 144 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.04% · EV $129.26 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 13.49% · 1 openings, odds method Variance · 19.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 1 openings · below min 30 days · 1 openings · below min since tracking started · 1 openings · below min -0.5% 442.2% 885.0% **Small sample.** 1 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1217?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1217?window=7d) | 1 | 13.49% ±871.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1217) | 1 | 13.49% ±871.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1217?window=all) | 1 | 13.49% ±871.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $19.4K 19,383 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $14.5K 14,530 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 2,000 | $11.8K 11,773 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $8,670 8,670 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 667 | $7,228 7,228 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $5,335 5,335 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $3,424 3,424 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $2,779 2,779 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $2,053 2,053 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $1,409 1,409 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $991 991 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-scorched-well-worn) | 1 in 1,041 | $587 587 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-urban-masked-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $257 257 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 13.2% | $148 148 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 15.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 13.9% | $101 101 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| USTILO (Gold) \| London 2018 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ustilo-gold-london-2018) | 15.1% | $64.00 64 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| Cloud9 (Holo) \| Cologne 2014 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-holo-cologne-2014) | 14.0% | $37.76 37.76 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| B1ad3 (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-b1ad3-foil-atlanta-2017) | 11.8% | $26.65 26.65 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $19.36 19.36 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| aizy (Gold) \| Berlin 2019 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-aizy-gold-berlin-2019) | 18.2% | $14.96 14.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1217`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1217) [AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) Hidden $144 144 CSGOBIG\_COIN $19.36 19.36 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-07 19:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $144 | 90.04% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 0.1% legendary 0.3% covert 13.9% extraordinary 0.4% classified 0.2% #EB4B4B 33.3% covert knife 4.9% gold 13.9% #8847FF 14.0% exotic 11.8% red 7.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.04 on average: an expected loss of $9.96 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt