--- title: "Nebula Nightfall case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Nebula Nightfall ($75.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 2.64% over 3 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/122 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Nebula Nightfall](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/122) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Nebula Nightfall A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/122?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/122?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/122) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/122?window=all) Price · $75.00 · 75 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $67.50 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 2.64% · 3 openings, odds method Variance · 31.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 83.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 3 openings · below min 7 days · 3 openings · below min 30 days · 3 openings · below min since tracking started · 3 openings · below min -0.5% 318.3% 637.0% **Small sample.** 3 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/122?window=24h) | 3 | 2.64% ±633.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/122?window=7d) | 3 | 2.64% ±633.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/122) | 3 | 2.64% ±633.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/122?window=all) | 3 | 2.64% ±633.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $12.8K 12,777 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 18.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 65 | $439 439 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $375 375 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 42.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $280 280 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $195 195 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Faded Zebra (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-faded-zebra-field-tested) | 12.1% | $4.49 4.49 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-space-cat-factory-new) | 15.1% | $3.99 3.99 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [FAMAS \| Night Borre (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-night-borre-factory-new) | 10.6% | $2.47 2.47 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 16.6% | $1.94 1.94 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| Midnight Palm (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-well-worn) | 13.6% | $1.54 1.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $1.49 1.49 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [P250 \| Forest Night (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-forest-night-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.99 0.99 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=122`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=122) [R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $75.00 75 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.94 1.94 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 03:18 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-midnight-palm-well-worn) Hidden $75.00 75 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.54 1.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 01:09 UTC [FAMAS | Night Borre (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-night-borre-factory-new) Hidden $75.00 75 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.47 2.47 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-11 01:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $75.00 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 7.7% rare 1.5% #ffd700 3.1% covert knife 4.6% milspec 12.1% Restricted 15.1% consumer 10.6% classified 16.6% uncommon 13.6% restricted 6.1% Consumer Grade 9.1% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt