--- title: "Thorns case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Thorns ($136.18) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 14 items with odds, observed 269.31% over 22 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1223 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Thorns](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1223) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Thorns A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1223?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1223?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1223) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1223?window=all) Price · $136.18 · 136 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $119.16 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 269.31% · 22 openings, odds method Variance · 92.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 9 openings · below min 30 days · 22 openings · below min since tracking started · 22 openings · below min -0.5% 335.3% 671.0% **Small sample.** 22 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1223?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1223?window=7d) | 9 | 6.29% ±627.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1223) | 22 | 269.31% ±401.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1223?window=all) | 22 | 269.31% ±401.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $104K 104,482 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 10,000 | $29.5K 29,470 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $23.8K 23,824 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $19.9K 19,853 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $17.5K 17,511 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| keshandr (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-keshandr-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 541 | $7,888 7,888 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.2% | 1 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $3,449 3,449 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 400 | $2,427 2,427 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $1,279 1,279 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $973 973 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $604 604 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $546 546 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.7% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $360 360 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Vortigaunt Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/vortigaunt-pin) | 90.0% | $8.57 8.57 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.5% | 21 | 19.8 | 1.06× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1223`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | keshandr (Gold) | Krakow 2017 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-keshandr-gold-krakow-2017) Hidden $136 136 CSGOBIG\_COIN $7,888 7,888 CSGOBIG\_COIN 57.93x 2026-11-03 18:49 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1223) [Vortigaunt Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/vortigaunt-pin) Hidden $136 136 CSGOBIG\_COIN $8.57 8.57 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-08 02:19 UTC [Vortigaunt Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/vortigaunt-pin) [DrDepo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/DrDepo) $136 136 CSGOBIG\_COIN $8.57 8.57 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-08 02:19 UTC [Vortigaunt Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/vortigaunt-pin) Hidden $136 136 CSGOBIG\_COIN $8.57 8.57 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-08 02:19 UTC [Vortigaunt Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/vortigaunt-pin) Hidden $136 136 CSGOBIG\_COIN $8.57 8.57 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-06 17:29 UTC [Vortigaunt Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/vortigaunt-pin) Hidden $136 136 CSGOBIG\_COIN $8.57 8.57 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-06 17:29 UTC [Vortigaunt Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/vortigaunt-pin) Hidden $136 136 CSGOBIG\_COIN $8.57 8.57 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-06 17:29 UTC [Vortigaunt Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/vortigaunt-pin) Hidden $136 136 CSGOBIG\_COIN $8.57 8.57 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-06 17:29 UTC [Vortigaunt Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/vortigaunt-pin) [KICK/RobZnnnCS (35.000$+ LB´s)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/KICK%2FRobZnnnCS%20%2835.000%24%2B%20LB%C2%B4s%29) $136 136 CSGOBIG\_COIN $8.57 8.57 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-06 17:29 UTC [Vortigaunt Pin pin · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/vortigaunt-pin) Hidden $136 136 CSGOBIG\_COIN $8.57 8.57 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-06 17:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $136 | 87.50% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% remarkable 0.0% contraband 0.0% covert 5.8% #EB4B4B 0.2% rare 1.0% classified 3.0% exotic 90.0% best hit $7,888 (57.93x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt