--- title: "Scarecrow case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Scarecrow ($2.43) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.89% from 12 items with odds, observed 113.63% over 25 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1227 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Scarecrow](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1227) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Scarecrow A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1227?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1227?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1227) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1227?window=all) Price · $2.43 · 2.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 89.89% · EV $2.18 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 113.63% · 25 openings, odds method Variance · 5.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 19.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 22 openings · below min 30 days · 25 openings · below min since tracking started · 25 openings · below min 19.5% 123.5% 227.5% **Small sample.** 25 openings and 4.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1227?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1227?window=7d) | 22 | 127.05% ±99.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1227) | 25 | 113.63% ±93.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1227?window=all) | 25 | 113.63% ±93.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $341 341 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Leather (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-leather-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,012 | $120 120 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 144 | $20.37 20.37 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| EliGE (Gold) \| Rio 2022 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-elige-gold-rio-2022) | 1 in 14 | $9.54 9.54 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 30.6% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.57× | | [Antwerp 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package container · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/antwerp-2022-vertigo-souvenir-package) | 11.2% | $4.34 4.34 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 22.2% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.79× | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 16.6% | $2.10 2.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 16.0% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.20× | | [Sticker \| fer \| Krakow 2017 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fer-krakow-2017) | 15.4% | $1.28 1.28 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.0% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.52× | | [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Triarch (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-triarch-field-tested) | 11.0% | $0.73 0.73 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.7% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.36× | | [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 11.0% | $0.39 0.39 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.0% | 5 | 2.7 | 1.82× | | [MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.36 0.36 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.4% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.91× | | [StatTrak™ AUG \| Triqua (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-triqua-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $0.24 0.24 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.54× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-circaetus-field-tested) | 11.2% | $0.17 0.17 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1227`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1227) [MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.43 2.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.36 0.36 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.15x 2026-11-09 16:09 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) Hidden $2.43 2.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.10 2.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.86x 2026-11-09 16:09 UTC [MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.43 2.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.36 0.36 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.15x 2026-11-07 04:49 UTC [Antwerp 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package container · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/antwerp-2022-vertigo-souvenir-package) Hidden $2.43 2.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN $4.34 4.34 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.79x 2026-11-07 04:49 UTC [Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.43 2.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.39 0.39 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.16x 2026-11-07 04:49 UTC [Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.43 2.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.39 0.39 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.16x 2026-11-07 04:49 UTC [Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) Hidden $2.43 2.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN $20.37 20.37 CSGOBIG\_COIN 8.38x 2026-11-07 04:49 UTC [Antwerp 2022 Vertigo Souvenir Package container · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/antwerp-2022-vertigo-souvenir-package) Hidden $2.43 2.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN $4.34 4.34 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.79x 2026-11-07 04:49 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) Hidden $2.43 2.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.10 2.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.86x 2026-11-07 04:49 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) Hidden $2.43 2.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.10 2.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.86x 2026-11-07 04:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.43 | 89.89% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.7% extraordinary 0.1% #EB4B4B 7.0% #B0C3D9 11.2% Classified 16.6% #4B69FF 15.4% restricted 11.0% mil spec 11.0% milspec 15.8% Rare 11.2% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.89 on average: an expected loss of $10.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt