--- title: "Celestial case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Celestial ($3.52) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.19% from 10 items with odds, observed 89.45% over 28 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1232 rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Celestial](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1232) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Celestial A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1232?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1232?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1232) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1232?window=all) Price · $3.52 · 3.52 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.19% · EV $3.17 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.45% · 28 openings, odds method Variance · 304.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 13.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 3 openings · below min 7 days · 11 openings · below min 30 days · 28 openings · below min since tracking started · 28 openings · below min -0.5% 1007.3% 2015.0% **Small sample.** 28 openings and 3.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1232?window=24h) | 3 | 40.72% ±1973.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1232?window=7d) | 11 | 67.67% ±1030.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1232) | 28 | 89.45% ±646.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1232?window=all) | 28 | 89.45% ±646.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,932 5,932 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 18.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,074 1,074 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,054 | $136 136 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-point-disarray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 79 | $19.79 19.79 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.9% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [Sticker \| Zyphon (Gold) \| Rio 2022 sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zyphon-gold-rio-2022) | 11.8% | $7.05 7.05 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 26.2% | 6 | 3.3 | 1.82× | | [SG 553 \| Barricade (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-barricade-factory-new) | 16.4% | $2.83 2.83 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 14.6% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.65× | | [Sticker \| Gambit Gaming (Holo) \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gambit-gaming-holo-stockholm-2021) | 17.3% | $1.77 1.77 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.7% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.03× | | [Tec-9 \| Ossified (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ossified-factory-new) | 17.4% | $1.02 1.02 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.6% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.82× | | [SSG 08 \| Hand Brake (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-hand-brake-well-worn) | 15.4% | $0.75 0.75 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.6% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.46× | | [Sticker \| Ethan \| Berlin 2019 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ethan-berlin-2019) | 20.3% | $0.45 0.45 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.9% | 7 | 5.7 | 1.23× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1232`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1232) [SG 553 | Barricade (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-barricade-factory-new) Hidden $3.52 3.52 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.83 2.83 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.80x 2026-11-11 09:59 UTC [Sticker | Ethan | Berlin 2019 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ethan-berlin-2019) Hidden $3.52 3.52 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.45 0.45 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-11 09:59 UTC [Tec-9 | Ossified (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ossified-factory-new) Hidden $3.52 3.52 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.02 1.02 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.29x 2026-11-11 09:59 UTC [Sticker | Zyphon (Gold) | Rio 2022 sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zyphon-gold-rio-2022) Hidden $3.52 3.52 CSGOBIG\_COIN $7.05 7.05 CSGOBIG\_COIN 2.00x 2026-11-09 23:50 UTC [Sticker | Gambit Gaming (Holo) | Stockholm 2021 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gambit-gaming-holo-stockholm-2021) Hidden $3.52 3.52 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.77 1.77 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.50x 2026-11-09 23:50 UTC [Sticker | Gambit Gaming (Holo) | Stockholm 2021 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gambit-gaming-holo-stockholm-2021) Hidden $3.52 3.52 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.77 1.77 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.50x 2026-11-09 23:50 UTC [Sticker | Zyphon (Gold) | Rio 2022 sticker · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-zyphon-gold-rio-2022) Hidden $3.52 3.52 CSGOBIG\_COIN $7.05 7.05 CSGOBIG\_COIN 2.00x 2026-11-09 23:50 UTC [Sticker | Ethan | Berlin 2019 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ethan-berlin-2019) Hidden $3.52 3.52 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.45 0.45 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.13x 2026-11-09 23:50 UTC [Tec-9 | Ossified (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ossified-factory-new) [Calz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Calz) $3.52 3.52 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.02 1.02 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.29x 2026-11-09 23:50 UTC [Sticker | Gambit Gaming (Holo) | Stockholm 2021 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gambit-gaming-holo-stockholm-2021) [Calz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Calz) $3.52 3.52 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.77 1.77 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.50x 2026-11-09 23:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.52 | 90.19% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% covert knife 0.1% classified 1.3% Ancient 11.8% Common 16.4% #8847FF 17.3% mil spec 17.4% milspec 15.4% #4B69FF 20.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.19 on average: an expected loss of $9.81 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt