--- title: "Fried case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Fried ($17.44) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.92% from 12 items with odds, observed 103.79% over 44 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1234 rendered: 2026-11-11T23:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Fried](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1234) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Fried A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1234?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1234?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1234) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1234?window=all) Price · $17.44 · 17.44 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 89.92% · EV $15.68 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 103.79% · 44 openings, odds method Variance · 11.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 1 openings · below min 7 days · 38 openings · below min 30 days · 44 openings · below min since tracking started · 44 openings · below min -0.5% 342.0% 684.5% **Small sample.** 44 openings and 2.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1234?window=24h) | 1 | 21.22% ±662.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1234?window=7d) | 38 | 119.16% ±107.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1234) | 44 | 103.79% ±99.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1234?window=all) | 44 | 103.79% ±99.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 44 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,535 2,535 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,673 1,673 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,054 1,054 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $216 216 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 70.1% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.34× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) weapon · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 24 | $46.67 46.67 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.2% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.11× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-field-tested) | 12.2% | $8.76 8.76 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.8% | 2 | 5.4 | 0.37× | | [Sticker \| TeSeS (Holo) \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-teses-holo-antwerp-2022) | 13.7% | $3.70 3.7 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.2% | 5 | 6.0 | 0.83× | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 15.8% | $1.48 1.48 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.5% | 6 | 7.0 | 0.86× | | [MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-acid-wash-factory-new) | 16.0% | $0.77 0.77 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 4 | 7.0 | 0.57× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Smirk (Bazooka Pink) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-smirk-bazooka-pink) | 15.7% | $0.42 0.42 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 14 | 6.9 | 2.02× | | [Sticker \| Ethan \| Katowice 2019 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ethan-katowice-2019) | 13.3% | $0.31 0.31 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.20× | | [Sticker \| Roosty Boosty sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-roosty-boosty) | 1 in 25 | $0.28 0.28 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1234`, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1234) [Sticker | TeSeS (Holo) | Antwerp 2022 sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-teses-holo-antwerp-2022) Hidden $17.44 17.44 CSGOBIG\_COIN $3.70 3.7 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.21x 2026-11-11 08:29 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-field-tested) Hidden $17.44 17.44 CSGOBIG\_COIN $8.76 8.76 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.50x 2026-11-09 08:19 UTC [StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-elite-build-minimal-wear) Hidden $17.44 17.44 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.48 1.48 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-09 08:19 UTC [Sticker | Roosty Boosty sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-roosty-boosty) Hidden $17.44 17.44 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.28 0.28 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-08 12:19 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Smirk (Bazooka Pink) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-smirk-bazooka-pink) Hidden $17.44 17.44 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.42 0.42 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-08 12:19 UTC [Sticker | Ethan | Katowice 2019 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ethan-katowice-2019) [Meg](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Meg) $17.44 17.44 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.31 0.31 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-08 12:19 UTC [MP5-SD | Acid Wash (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-acid-wash-factory-new) [Meg](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Meg) $17.44 17.44 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.77 0.77 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-08 12:19 UTC [Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) weapon · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $17.44 17.44 CSGOBIG\_COIN $46.67 46.67 CSGOBIG\_COIN 2.68x 2026-11-07 17:39 UTC [Sticker | Ethan | Katowice 2019 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ethan-katowice-2019) Hidden $17.44 17.44 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.31 0.31 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-07 17:39 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Smirk (Bazooka Pink) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-smirk-bazooka-pink) Hidden $17.44 17.44 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.42 0.42 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-07 14:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $17.44 | 89.92% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% covert 4.1% covert knife 5.1% restricted 12.2% Legendary 13.7% milspec 15.8% mil spec 16.0% #B0C3D9 15.7% #4B69FF 13.3% Rare 4.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.92 on average: an expected loss of $10.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt