---
title: "Peanut case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Peanut ($26.43) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.94% from 14 items with odds, observed 3.29% over 2 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1236
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:41Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Peanut](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1236)

# [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Peanut

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1236?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1236?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1236) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1236?window=all)

Price · $26.43 · 26.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 89.94% · EV $23.77 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 3.29% · 2 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 91.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 2 openings · below min

30 days · 2 openings · below min

since tracking started · 2 openings · below min

-0.5% 168.8% 338.0%

**Small sample.** 2 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1236?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1236?window=7d) | 2 | 3.29% ±333.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1236) | 2 | 3.29% ±333.9 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/1236?window=all) | 2 | 3.29% ±333.9 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,477 1,477 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-well-worn) | 1 in 5,000 | $933 933 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $618 618 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $447 447 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $216 216 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 72.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Graven (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-battle-scarred) | 12.3% | $26.00 26 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Damjan Mravunac, The Talos Principle music kit · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-music-kit-damjan-mravunac-the-talos-principle) | 15.1% | $8.53 8.53 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Last Dive (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-last-dive-well-worn) | 16.7% | $3.03 3.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Sticker \| kyxsan (Holo) \| Paris 2023 sticker · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kyxsan-holo-paris-2023) | 15.8% | $1.46 1.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Sticker \| maden (Holo) \| Paris 2023 sticker · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-maden-holo-paris-2023) | 11.4% | $0.66 0.66 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-whitefish-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $0.52 0.52 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Applause (War Pig Pink) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-applause-war-pig-pink) | 1 in 13 | $0.28 0.28 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [P90 \| Freight (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $0.25 0.25 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,009 | $0.13 0.13 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1236`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=1236)

[Sealed Graffiti | Applause (War Pig Pink) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-applause-war-pig-pink) [PhukFace](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/PhukFace) $26.43 26.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.28 0.28 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-06 07:09 UTC

[Sticker | kyxsan (Holo) | Paris 2023 sticker · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kyxsan-holo-paris-2023) Hidden $26.43 26.43 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.46 1.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-06 07:09 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $26.43 | 89.94% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 8.1% rare 0.1% restricted 28.9% High Grade 15.1% #D32CE6 27.1% milspec 8.6% #B0C3D9 7.7% Rare 4.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.94 on average: an expected loss of $10.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt