--- title: "Ashes To Rain case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Ashes To Rain ($15.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 15 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/127 rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Ashes To Rain](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/127) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Ashes To Rain A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/127?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/127?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/127) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/127?window=all) Price · $15.00 · 15 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $13.50 from 15 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 2.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/127?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/127?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/127) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/127?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| rain (Gold) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-gold-katowice-2019) | 10.0% | $84.84 84.84 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 62.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| xseveN (Gold) \| Berlin 2019 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-xseven-gold-berlin-2019) | 1 in 57 | $21.71 21.71 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| interz (Gold) \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-interz-gold-stockholm-2021) | 10.2% | $13.16 13.16 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Patch \| GODSENT (Gold) \| Stockholm 2021 patch · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-godsent-gold-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 19 | $11.01 11.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-gold-brick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $11.00 11 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Krimbo (Gold) \| Rio 2022 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-krimbo-gold-rio-2022) | 1 in 17 | $10.58 10.58 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Keoz (Gold) \| Rio 2022 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-keoz-gold-rio-2022) | 1 in 12 | $7.00 7 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Goofy (Gold) \| Paris 2023 sticker · #F2F8FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-goofy-gold-paris-2023) | 1 in 109 | $4.29 4.29 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $4.23 4.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| FASHR (Gold) \| Paris 2023 sticker · #F2F8FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fashr-gold-paris-2023) | 11.1% | $2.69 2.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-banana-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $1.72 1.72 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [UMP-45 \| Houndstooth (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-houndstooth-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $1.28 1.28 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 11.9% | $0.83 0.83 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sawed-Off \| Origami (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $0.16 0.16 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-oxide-blaze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $0.12 0.12 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=127`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=127) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $15.00 | 90.00% | 15 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 10.0% #EB4B4B 26.6% #8847FF 9.5% #F2F8FF 12.0% #8847ff 7.7% violet 6.9% #5E98D9 9.4% Rare 14.6% milspec 3.5% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt