---
title: "The Alpha case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "The Alpha ($32.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 20 items with odds, observed 10.12% over 12 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/13
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [The Alpha](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/13)

# [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · The Alpha

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/13?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/13?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/13) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/13?window=all)

Price · $32.00 · 32 CSGOBIG\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $28.80 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 10.12% · 12 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 12 openings · below min

30 days · 12 openings · below min

since tracking started · 12 openings · below min

-0.5% 73.0% 146.5%

**Small sample.** 12 openings and 1.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/13?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/13?window=7d) | 12 | 10.12% ±135.7 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/13) | 12 | 10.12% ±135.7 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/13?window=all) | 12 | 10.12% ±135.7 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $1,110 1,110 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $255 255 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $175 175 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 30.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $114 114 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $112 112 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 16.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 10.4% | $37.55 37.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 13.6% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $14.44 14.44 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.6% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.90× |
| [P250 \| Hive (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-factory-new) | 1 in 81 | $9.76 9.76 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| Cloud9 (Holo) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-holo-katowice-2019) | 1 in 13 | $8.45 8.45 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.3% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| ['Medium Rare' Crasswater \| Guerrilla Warfare agent · Master](https://gambatracker.com/items/medium-rare-crasswater-guerrilla-warfare) | 1 in 12 | $8.01 8.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.4% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× |
| [Sticker \| Bite Me (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bite-me-foil) | 1 in 20 | $4.67 4.67 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Sticker \| juanflatroo (Gold) \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-juanflatroo-gold-antwerp-2022) | 1 in 27 | $2.68 2.68 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Sticker \| arT \| Katowice 2019 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-art-katowice-2019) | 1 in 162 | $1.85 1.85 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $1.58 1.58 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| R.I.P.I.P. graffiti · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-r-i-p-i-p) | 1 in 16 | $1.38 1.38 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [Sticker \| Small Arms sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms) | 1 in 10 | $1.15 1.15 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 4 | 1.2 | 3.39× |
| [MAC-10 \| Monkeyflage (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $0.21 0.21 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [Galil AR \| VariCamo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-varicamo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [XM1014 \| CaliCamo (Well-Worn) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-calicamo-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $0.08 0.08 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Popdog (Monster Purple) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-popdog-monster-purple) | 1 in 33 | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=13`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=13)

[Galil AR | VariCamo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-varicamo-battle-scarred) Hidden $32.00 32 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-05 17:59 UTC

[Sticker | Cloud9 (Holo) | Katowice 2019 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-holo-katowice-2019) Hidden $32.00 32 CSGOBIG\_COIN $8.45 8.45 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.26x 2026-11-05 17:59 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) Hidden $32.00 32 CSGOBIG\_COIN $14.44 14.44 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.45x 2026-11-05 17:59 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | R.I.P.I.P. graffiti · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-r-i-p-i-p) Hidden $32.00 32 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.38 1.38 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-05 17:59 UTC

[AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-field-tested) Hidden $32.00 32 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.58 1.58 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-05 17:59 UTC

[Sticker | Small Arms sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms) Hidden $32.00 32 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.15 1.15 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-05 17:59 UTC

[Sticker | Small Arms sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms) Hidden $32.00 32 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.15 1.15 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-05 17:59 UTC

[Sticker | Small Arms sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms) Hidden $32.00 32 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.15 1.15 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-05 17:59 UTC

['Medium Rare' Crasswater | Guerrilla Warfare agent · Master](https://gambatracker.com/items/medium-rare-crasswater-guerrilla-warfare) Hidden $32.00 32 CSGOBIG\_COIN $8.01 8.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.25x 2026-11-05 17:59 UTC

[Sticker | Small Arms sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-small-arms) Hidden $32.00 32 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.15 1.15 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-05 17:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $32.00 | 90.00% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 2 5.5% legendary 0.3% extraordinary 0.7% Classified 5.0% covert knife 2.5% Immortal 4.3% covert 10.4% classified 9.2% milspec 8.0% remarkable 8.0% Master 8.6% Legendary 4.9% #EB4B4B 3.7% #4B69FF 10.4% restricted 1.8% #8847FF 6.1% #5E98D9 7.4% #B0C3D9 3.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt