--- title: "Coded case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Coded ($19.18) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 4 items with odds, observed 8.34% over 1 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/130 rendered: 2026-11-11T22:18Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Coded](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/130) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Coded A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/130?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/130?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/130) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/130?window=all) Price · $19.18 · 19.18 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $17.26 from 4 items Observed RTP, 30d · 8.34% · 1 openings, odds method Variance · 31.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 97.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 30 days · 1 openings · below min since tracking started · 1 openings · below min -0.5% 554.5% 1109.5% **Small sample.** 1 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/130?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/130?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/130) | 1 | 8.34% ±1100.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/130?window=all) | 1 | 8.34% ±1100.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 4 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-control-panel-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,075 1,075 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 62.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $125 125 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 14.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-battle-scarred) | 40.0% | $7.75 7.75 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 18.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Dual Berettas \| Switch Board (Factory New) weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-switch-board-factory-new) | 57.0% | $1.60 1.6 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=130`, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=130) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $19.18 | 90.00% | 4 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #D32CE6 1.0% covert 2.0% #d32ee6 40.0% Industrial 57.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt