---
title: "The Setup case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "The Setup ($35.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 20 items with odds, observed 32.26% over 15 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/14
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [The Setup](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/14)

# [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · The Setup

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/14?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/14?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/14) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/14?window=all)

Price · $35.00 · 35 CSGOBIG\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $31.50 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 32.26% · 15 openings, odds method

Variance · 45.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 3 openings · below min

7 days · 15 openings · below min

30 days · 15 openings · below min

since tracking started · 15 openings · below min

-0.5% 385.0% 770.5%

**Small sample.** 15 openings and 1.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/14?window=24h) | 3 | 8.41% ±761.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/14?window=7d) | 15 | 32.26% ±340.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/14) | 15 | 32.26% ±340.6 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/14?window=all) | 15 | 32.26% ±340.6 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $8,000 8,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $5,888 5,888 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,700 2,700 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $440 440 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10 | $160 160 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 48.4% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $140 140 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 19.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [Sticker \| nitr0 (Gold) \| Berlin 2019 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-nitr0-gold-berlin-2019) | 1 in 14 | $7.65 7.65 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.8% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.82× |
| [P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bengal-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $6.60 6.6 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-photic-zone-factory-new) | 10.3% | $2.36 2.36 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $2.02 2.02 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Off World (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-off-world-well-worn) | 11.0% | $0.98 0.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Sage Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-sage-spray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $0.78 0.78 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.27× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-well-worn) | 1 in 68 | $0.42 0.42 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Dizzy (Battle Green) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-dizzy-battle-green) | 11.7% | $0.40 0.4 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.57× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Heist (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-heist-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $0.32 0.32 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Sticker \| TYLOO (Holo) \| 2020 RMR sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tyloo-holo-2020-rmr) | 1 in 15 | $0.22 0.22 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Watermelon Stabbyfish sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-watermelon-stabbyfish) | 1 in 136 | $0.17 0.17 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Facility Dark (Well-Worn) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-facility-dark-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.48× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Take Flight (Dust Brown) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-take-flight-dust-brown) | 1 in 27 | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Army Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-army-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=14`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=14)

[Sealed Graffiti | Dizzy (Battle Green) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-dizzy-battle-green) [Dick to small to Fit](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Dick%20to%20small%20to%20Fit) $35.00 35 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.40 0.4 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 18:49 UTC

[Sticker | nitr0 (Gold) | Berlin 2019 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-nitr0-gold-berlin-2019) Hidden $35.00 35 CSGOBIG\_COIN $7.65 7.65 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.22x 2026-11-10 18:49 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-sage-spray-battle-scarred) Hidden $35.00 35 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.78 0.78 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 18:49 UTC

[Sealed Graffiti | Take Flight (Dust Brown) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-take-flight-dust-brown) Hidden $35.00 35 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 04:50 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Stained (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-stained-battle-scarred) Hidden $35.00 35 CSGOBIG\_COIN $140 140 CSGOBIG\_COIN 4.00x 2026-11-10 04:50 UTC

[P250 | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bengal-tiger-field-tested) Hidden $35.00 35 CSGOBIG\_COIN $6.60 6.6 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.19x 2026-11-10 04:50 UTC

[Sticker | nitr0 (Gold) | Berlin 2019 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-nitr0-gold-berlin-2019) [ilovebigspins](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/ilovebigspins) $35.00 35 CSGOBIG\_COIN $7.65 7.65 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.22x 2026-11-10 04:50 UTC

[Sticker | TYLOO (Holo) | 2020 RMR sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tyloo-holo-2020-rmr) Hidden $35.00 35 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.22 0.22 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-09 06:29 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Sage Spray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-sage-spray-battle-scarred) Hidden $35.00 35 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.78 0.78 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-09 06:09 UTC

[UMP-45 | Facility Dark (Well-Worn) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-facility-dark-well-worn) Hidden $35.00 35 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 06:09 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $35.00 | 90.00% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 5.1% #ffd700 0.1% covert 0.1% legendary 0.1% sunny 0.1% gold 9.5% covert knife 4.4% #EB4B4B 7.3% #4b69ff 14.7% milspec 11.0% #B0C3D9 38.1% Consumer Grade 2.2% #8847FF 6.6% high 0.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt