--- title: "Lilypad case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Lilypad ($50.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 5 items with odds, observed 80.18% over 45 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/144 rendered: 2026-11-11T23:20Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Lilypad](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/144) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Lilypad A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/144?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/144?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/144) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/144?window=all) Price · $50.00 · 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $45.00 from 5 items Observed RTP, 30d · 80.18% · 45 openings, odds method Variance · 16.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 41 openings · below min 30 days · 45 openings · below min since tracking started · 45 openings · below min -0.5% 105.0% 210.5% **Small sample.** 45 openings and 2.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/144?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/144?window=7d) | 41 | 86.93% ±123.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/144) | 45 | 80.18% ±117.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/144?window=all) | 45 | 80.18% ±117.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 45 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MP9 \| Wild Lily (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $1,795 1,795 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 39.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $500 500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 44.4% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.67× | | [UMP-45 \| Day Lily (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $65.00 65 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.2% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.89× | | [P90 \| Sunset Lily (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sunset-lily-factory-new) | 15.0% | $17.03 17.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.7% | 7 | 6.8 | 1.04× | | [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) | 75.0% | $1.66 1.66 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.8% | 33 | 33.8 | 0.98× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=144`, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AUG | Midnight Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-factory-new) Hidden $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN $500 500 CSGOBIG\_COIN 10.00x 2026-11-09 10:49 UTC [AUG | Midnight Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-factory-new) Hidden $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN $500 500 CSGOBIG\_COIN 10.00x 2026-11-08 12:59 UTC [AUG | Midnight Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-factory-new) Hidden $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN $500 500 CSGOBIG\_COIN 10.00x 2026-11-05 15:29 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=144) [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) Hidden $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.66 1.66 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 21:20 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) Hidden $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.66 1.66 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 21:20 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) Hidden $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.66 1.66 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 21:20 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) Hidden $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.66 1.66 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 21:20 UTC [P90 | Sunset Lily (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sunset-lily-factory-new) Hidden $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN $17.03 17.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.34x 2026-11-10 21:20 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) [Rassel](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Rassel) $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.66 1.66 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 21:20 UTC [AUG | Midnight Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-factory-new) Hidden $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN $500 500 CSGOBIG\_COIN 10.00x 2026-11-09 10:49 UTC [UMP-45 | Day Lily (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-day-lily-factory-new) Hidden $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN $65.00 65 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.30x 2026-11-09 10:49 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) Hidden $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.66 1.66 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-09 10:49 UTC [M4A4 | Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) Hidden $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.66 1.66 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-09 10:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $50.00 | 90.00% | 5 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 1.0% restricted 79.0% Rare 5.0% industrial 15.0% best hit $500 (10.00x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt