--- title: "The Serpent case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Serpent ($38.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 20 items with odds, observed 216.27% over 72 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/15 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [The Serpent](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/15) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · The Serpent A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/15?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/15?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/15) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/15?window=all) Price · $38.00 · 38 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $34.20 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 216.27% · 72 openings, odds method Variance · 74.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 125 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 98.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 11 openings · below min 7 days · 51 openings · below min 30 days · 72 openings · below min since tracking started · 72 openings · below min -0.5% 271.8% 544.0% **Small sample.** 72 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/15?window=24h) | 11 | 31.76% ±511.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/15?window=7d) | 51 | 207.71% ±237.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/15) | 72 | 216.27% ±199.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/15?window=all) | 72 | 216.27% ±199.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 72 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $5,555 5,555 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 48.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,800 1,800 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 26.3% | 3 | 0.4 | — | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $260 260 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $33.50 33.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.8% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.08× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $31.19 31.19 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-fire-elemental-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $29.00 29 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.1% | 7 | 6.0 | 1.16× | | [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 10.9% | $12.44 12.44 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.0% | 8 | 7.9 | 1.02× | | [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $10.14 10.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.7% | 8 | 6.5 | 1.23× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $6.27 6.27 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.54× | | [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-the-executioner-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $3.49 3.49 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.72× | | [P90 \| Desert Warfare (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-warfare-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $1.11 1.11 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.43× | | [R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $1.09 1.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× | | [Souvenir Galil AR \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.96 0.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 8 | 4.6 | 1.72× | | [MP5-SD \| Agent (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.63 0.63 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 6 | 5.1 | 1.18× | | [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Foresight (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-foresight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 152 | $0.39 0.39 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Sticker \| Hello MP9 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hello-mp9) | 1 in 10 | $0.17 0.17 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 5 | 7.0 | 0.72× | | [G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-crash-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.15 0.15 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.92× | | [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Strats (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-strats-battle-scarred) | 10.3% | $0.10 0.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 10 | 7.4 | 1.35× | | [Sticker \| sjuush (Glitter) \| Rio 2022 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sjuush-glitter-rio-2022) | 1 in 19 | $0.05 0.05 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 1 | 3.7 | 0.27× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Piggles (Dust Brown) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-piggles-dust-brown) | 1 in 13 | $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 4 | 5.6 | 0.72× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=15`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) Hidden $38.00 38 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1,800 1,800 CSGOBIG\_COIN 47.37x 2026-11-06 02:29 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) Hidden $38.00 38 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1,800 1,800 CSGOBIG\_COIN 47.37x 2026-11-05 08:58 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-factory-new) Hidden $38.00 38 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1,800 1,800 CSGOBIG\_COIN 47.37x 2026-11-03 15:29 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=15) [StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-fire-elemental-battle-scarred) Hidden $38.00 38 CSGOBIG\_COIN $29.00 29 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.76x 2026-11-11 01:29 UTC [Sticker | sjuush (Glitter) | Rio 2022 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sjuush-glitter-rio-2022) Hidden $38.00 38 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.05 0.05 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:29 UTC [StatTrak™ P2000 | Fire Elemental (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-fire-elemental-battle-scarred) Hidden $38.00 38 CSGOBIG\_COIN $29.00 29 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.76x 2026-11-10 19:10 UTC [StatTrak™ G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-the-executioner-field-tested) Hidden $38.00 38 CSGOBIG\_COIN $3.49 3.49 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.09x 2026-11-10 19:10 UTC [AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) Hidden $38.00 38 CSGOBIG\_COIN $12.44 12.44 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.33x 2026-11-10 19:10 UTC [P90 | Desert Warfare (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-warfare-field-tested) Hidden $38.00 38 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.11 1.11 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 19:10 UTC [Souvenir Galil AR | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-amber-fade-field-tested) Hidden $38.00 38 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.96 0.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-10 19:10 UTC [Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) [Dick to small to Fit](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Dick%20to%20small%20to%20Fit) $38.00 38 CSGOBIG\_COIN $10.14 10.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.27x 2026-11-10 19:10 UTC [AWP | Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-field-tested) [Dick to small to Fit](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Dick%20to%20small%20to%20Fit) $38.00 38 CSGOBIG\_COIN $33.50 33.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.88x 2026-11-10 18:49 UTC [MP5-SD | Agent (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-field-tested) Hidden $38.00 38 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.63 0.63 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 18:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $38.00 | 90.00% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.3% covert 14.0% mil spec 3.8% classified 13.5% Ancient 9.0% #D32CE6 5.8% milspec 2.6% Mil Spec Grade 6.4% restricted 7.1% #4B69FF 9.7% #4b69ff 4.5% #B0C3D9 18.0% #8847FF 5.2% best hit $1,800 (47.37x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt