---
title: "20% Charmed Chronicle case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "20% Charmed Chronicle ($3,685.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 5 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/168
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [20% Charmed Chronicle](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/168)

# [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · 20% Charmed Chronicle

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/168?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/168?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/168) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/168?window=all)

Price · $3,685.00 · 3,685 CSGOBIG\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $3,316.50 from 5 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 3.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/168?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/168?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/168) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/168?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 20 | $20.5K 20,533 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 31.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 20 | $17.5K 17,525 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 26.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 20 | $17.2K 17,196 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 25.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 20 | $11.1K 11,068 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 16.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-factory-new) | 80.0% | $0.50 0.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=168`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=168)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3,685 | 90.00% | 5 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #EB4B4B 5.0% covert 15.0% consumer 80.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt