--- title: "20% Potionmaster's Parcel case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "20% Potionmaster's Parcel ($1,166.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/171 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [20% Potionmaster's Parcel](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/171) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · 20% Potionmaster's Parcel A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/171?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/171?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/171) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/171?window=all) Price · $1,166.00 · 1,166 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $1,049.41 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 7.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/171?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/171?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/171) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/171?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $25.9K 25,882 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 200 | $20.6K 20,553 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $12.3K 12,322 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 100 | $12.1K 12,073 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $11K 11,030 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $7,262 7,262 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $5,920 5,920 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 50 | $4,110 4,110 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $2,814 2,814 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $2,192 2,192 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1,656 1,656 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-junk-yard-battle-scarred) | 80.0% | $0.36 0.36 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=171`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=171) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1,166 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.5% #EB4B4B 5.5% covert 14.0% milspec 80.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. 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