--- title: "5% Wizard's Wonder case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "5% Wizard's Wonder ($486.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 83.60% over 12 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/180 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [5% Wizard's Wonder](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/180) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · 5% Wizard's Wonder A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/180?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/180?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/180) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/180?window=all) Price · $486.00 · 486 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $437.39 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.60% · 12 openings, odds method Variance · 23.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 67 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 12 openings · below min 30 days · 12 openings · below min since tracking started · 12 openings · below min -0.5% 177.8% 356.0% **Small sample.** 12 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/180?window=24h) | 12 | 83.60% ±271.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/180?window=7d) | 12 | 83.60% ±271.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/180) | 12 | 83.60% ±271.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/180?window=all) | 12 | 83.60% ±271.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [EMS Katowice 2014 Legends other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-legends) | 1 in 400 | $32.7K 32,690 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 18.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 400 | $13.3K 13,277 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 400 | $12.2K 12,195 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 400 | $11K 11,030 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 400 | $10.1K 10,139 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 400 | $9,850 9,850 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 400 | $9,439 9,439 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $7,407 7,407 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $6,593 6,593 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $5,479 5,479 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $4,865 4,865 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [Nova \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-factory-new) | 95.0% | $0.97 0.97 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 11 | 11.4 | 0.96× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=180`, 11 Nov, 12:47 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) Hidden $486 486 CSGOBIG\_COIN $4,865 4,865 CSGOBIG\_COIN 10.01x 2026-11-10 22:20 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=180) [Nova | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-factory-new) Hidden $486 486 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.97 0.97 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:10 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-factory-new) Hidden $486 486 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.97 0.97 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:10 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-factory-new) Hidden $486 486 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.97 0.97 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:10 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-factory-new) Hidden $486 486 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.97 0.97 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:10 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-factory-new) Hidden $486 486 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.97 0.97 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:10 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-factory-new) [tinyguy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/tinyguy) $486 486 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.97 0.97 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 02:10 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-factory-new) Hidden $486 486 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.97 0.97 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:20 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) Hidden $486 486 CSGOBIG\_COIN $4,865 4,865 CSGOBIG\_COIN 10.01x 2026-11-10 22:20 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-factory-new) Hidden $486 486 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.97 0.97 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:20 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-factory-new) [Zoid](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Zoid) $486 486 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.97 0.97 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 22:20 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $486 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed base 0.3% covert 1.3% Covert 0.3% extraordinary 3.3% consumer 95.0% best hit $4,865 (10.01x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt