--- title: "The Pioneer case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "The Pioneer ($35.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 20 items with odds, observed 365.43% over 3 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/19 rendered: 2026-11-12T17:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [The Pioneer](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/19) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · The Pioneer A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/19?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/19?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/19) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/19?window=all) Price · $35.00 · 35 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $31.50 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 365.43% · 3 openings, odds method Variance · 13.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 74.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 3 openings · below min 30 days · 3 openings · below min since tracking started · 3 openings · below min -0.5% 387.5% 775.5% **Small sample.** 3 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/19?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/19?window=7d) | 3 | 365.43% ±409.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/19) | 3 | 365.43% ±409.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/19?window=all) | 3 | 365.43% ±409.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $5,888 5,888 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $4,400 4,400 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,750 1,750 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $980 980 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $290 290 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 47.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 10 | $52.13 52.13 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 15.8% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-guardian-battle-scarred) | 11.0% | $41.13 41.13 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 14.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $18.19 18.19 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $13.58 13.58 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Reactor (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-field-tested) | 10.3% | $6.45 6.45 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $4.07 4.07 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-powercore-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $3.80 3.8 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $3.70 3.7 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Souvenir P90 \| Schematic (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-schematic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $2.78 2.78 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| Hot Wings sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hot-wings) | 11.7% | $1.22 1.22 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Winterized (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-winterized-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $1.02 1.02 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Chabo sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chabo) | 1 in 23 | $0.98 0.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ivory (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-ivory-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $0.52 0.52 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-junk-yard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $0.12 0.12 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Tilt (Dust Brown) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-tilt-dust-brown) | 1 in 136 | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=19`, 12 Nov, 14:18 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=19) [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Guardian (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-guardian-battle-scarred) Hidden $35.00 35 CSGOBIG\_COIN $41.13 41.13 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.18x 2026-11-07 10:39 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) [Mexi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Mexi) $35.00 35 CSGOBIG\_COIN $52.13 52.13 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.49x 2026-11-07 10:39 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-battle-scarred) Hidden $35.00 35 CSGOBIG\_COIN $290 290 CSGOBIG\_COIN 8.30x 2026-11-07 10:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $35.00 | 90.00% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.6% extraordinary 5.2% #ffd700 0.1% classified 11.0% industrial 5.9% mil spec 18.4% Mil Spec Grade 10.3% restricted 16.2% Rare 16.2% milspec 1.5% #4B69FF 2.9% blue 2.2% #B0C3D9 0.7% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt