---
title: "Budget 10% Knife case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Budget 10% Knife ($18.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 20 items with odds, observed 184.67% over 26 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/2
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Budget 10% Knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/2)

# [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Budget 10% Knife

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/2?window=all)

Price · $18.00 · 18 CSGOBIG\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $16.20 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 184.67% · 26 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 2 openings · below min

7 days · 25 openings · below min

30 days · 26 openings · below min

since tracking started · 26 openings · below min

-0.5% 190.8% 382.0%

**Small sample.** 26 openings and 2.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/2?window=24h) | 2 | 59.11% ±322.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/2?window=7d) | 25 | 191.70% ±91.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/2) | 26 | 184.67% ±89.4 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/2?window=all) | 26 | 184.67% ±89.4 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 26 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,700 1,700 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $130 130 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 80.2% | 6 | 2.6 | 2.31× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $19.45 19.45 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.7% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.29× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 185 | $16.02 16.02 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Anodized Gunmetal (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-anodized-gunmetal-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $5.55 5.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-praetorian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $4.66 4.66 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.7% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-fowl-play-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $3.40 3.4 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Hard Cluck Life (Foil) sticker · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hard-cluck-life-foil) | 1 in 16 | $2.28 2.28 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [Sticker \| Free Hugs (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-free-hugs-holo) | 1 in 11 | $1.83 1.83 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.1% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.22× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $1.82 1.82 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $1.59 1.59 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.7% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.52× |
| [G3SG1 \| Stinger (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-stinger-well-worn) | 1 in 94 | $1.46 1.46 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Sticker \| Queen Of Pain sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-queen-of-pain) | 1 in 32 | $1.42 1.42 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 4 | 0.8 | — |
| [Souvenir Negev \| Bulkhead (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-negev-bulkhead-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $0.99 0.99 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.61 0.61 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.49× |
| [M249 \| O.S.I.P.R. (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-o-s-i-p-r-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $0.23 0.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Sticker \| nafany (Glitter) \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-nafany-glitter-antwerp-2022) | 1 in 12 | $0.14 0.14 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Rage Mode (Brick Red) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-rage-mode-brick-red) | 1 in 47 | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Sealed Graffiti \| Noscope (Blood Red) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-noscope-blood-red) | 1 in 24 | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.83× |
| [Sticker \| aliStair \| Antwerp 2022 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-alistair-antwerp-2022) | 1 in 19 | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=2`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=2)

[Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.00 18 CSGOBIG\_COIN $19.45 19.45 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.08x 2026-11-11 04:00 UTC

[Sticker | Free Hugs (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-free-hugs-holo) Hidden $18.00 18 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.83 1.83 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-11 04:00 UTC

[Sticker | Queen Of Pain sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-queen-of-pain) Hidden $18.00 18 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.42 1.42 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-09 12:39 UTC

[Sticker | Free Hugs (Holo) sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-free-hugs-holo) Hidden $18.00 18 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.83 1.83 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-09 12:39 UTC

[Souvenir Negev | Bulkhead (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-negev-bulkhead-well-worn) Hidden $18.00 18 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.99 0.99 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-09 12:39 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-arctic-wolf-field-tested) Hidden $18.00 18 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.61 0.61 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-09 12:39 UTC

[Sticker | Queen Of Pain sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-queen-of-pain) Hidden $18.00 18 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.42 1.42 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.08x 2026-11-09 09:49 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) [Oddball](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Oddball) $18.00 18 CSGOBIG\_COIN $19.45 19.45 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.08x 2026-11-09 09:49 UTC

[MP9 | Airlock (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-battle-scarred) Hidden $18.00 18 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.82 1.82 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.10x 2026-11-09 09:49 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-field-tested) Hidden $18.00 18 CSGOBIG\_COIN $130 130 CSGOBIG\_COIN 7.22x 2026-11-09 09:49 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $18.00 | 90.00% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% gold 10.0% classified 12.6% restricted 8.4% Common 1.6% #8847FF 14.2% #D32CE6 6.3% Mythical 9.5% #d32ee6 6.8% violet 8.4% Rare 3.2% #5E98D9 4.7% #4b69ff 2.6% #B0C3D9 6.3% #4B69FF 5.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt