--- title: "Neon Noir case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Neon Noir ($75.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 40.18% over 42 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/209 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Neon Noir](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/209) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Neon Noir A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/209?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/209?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/209) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/209?window=all) Price · $75.00 · 75 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $67.50 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 40.18% · 42 openings, odds method Variance · 73.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 200 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 98.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 1 openings · below min 7 days · 23 openings · below min 30 days · 42 openings · below min since tracking started · 42 openings · below min -0.5% 839.0% 1678.5% **Small sample.** 42 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/209?window=24h) | 1 | 0.11% ±1677.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/209?window=7d) | 23 | 70.81% ±349.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/209) | 42 | 40.18% ±258.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/209?window=all) | 42 | 40.18% ±258.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 42 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| keshandr (Gold) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-keshandr-gold-krakow-2017) | 1 in 200 | $8,928 8,928 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 66.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $1,089 1,089 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 24.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $43.22 43.22 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.8% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.53× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $13.73 13.73 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.05× | | [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $6.50 6.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× | | [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $4.23 4.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.26× | | [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) | 13.6% | $2.69 2.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 4 | 5.7 | 0.70× | | [Five-SeveN \| Nightshade (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nightshade-well-worn) | 10.6% | $2.49 2.49 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 2 | 4.4 | 0.45× | | [MP7 \| Neon Ply (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-minimal-wear) | 15.1% | $2.09 2.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 11 | 6.3 | 1.74× | | [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 12.1% | $1.94 1.94 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.59× | | [Souvenir M249 \| Midnight Palm (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-midnight-palm-well-worn) | 16.6% | $0.08 0.08 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 11 | 7.0 | 1.58× | | [Souvenir CZ75-Auto \| Midnight Palm (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-cz75-auto-midnight-palm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.04 0.04 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.58× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=209`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-well-worn) Hidden $75.00 75 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1,089 1,089 CSGOBIG\_COIN 14.52x 2026-11-08 19:39 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=209) [Souvenir M249 | Midnight Palm (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-midnight-palm-well-worn) Hidden $75.00 75 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.08 0.08 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 03:18 UTC [★ Karambit | Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-night-well-worn) Hidden $75.00 75 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1,089 1,089 CSGOBIG\_COIN 14.52x 2026-11-08 19:39 UTC [Souvenir M249 | Midnight Palm (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-midnight-palm-well-worn) Hidden $75.00 75 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.08 0.08 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 19:39 UTC [AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) [Cryder](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Cryder) $75.00 75 CSGOBIG\_COIN $43.22 43.22 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.58x 2026-11-08 19:39 UTC [Souvenir M249 | Midnight Palm (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-midnight-palm-well-worn) Hidden $75.00 75 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.08 0.08 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 19:39 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) Hidden $75.00 75 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.69 2.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-08 19:39 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) Hidden $75.00 75 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.69 2.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-08 19:39 UTC [P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $75.00 75 CSGOBIG\_COIN $4.23 4.23 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-08 05:19 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) Hidden $75.00 75 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.69 2.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-08 05:19 UTC [MP7 | Neon Ply (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-minimal-wear) [Beams vi Germania](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/Beams%20vi%20Germania) $75.00 75 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.09 2.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.03x 2026-11-08 05:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $75.00 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #EB4B4B 0.5% covert knife 1.5% covert 19.6% classified 19.6% #8847ff 13.6% milspec 10.6% restricted 15.1% #5E98D9 16.6% Industrial Grade 3.0% best hit $1,089 (14.52x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt