--- title: "1% Lore Dream case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "1% Lore Dream ($80.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 20 items with odds, observed 6.68% over 31 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/21 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:28Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [1% Lore Dream](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/21) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · 1% Lore Dream A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/21?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/21?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/21) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/21?window=all) Price · $80.00 · 80 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $72.00 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 6.68% · 31 openings, odds method Variance · 54.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 98.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 31 openings · below min 30 days · 31 openings · below min since tracking started · 31 openings · below min -0.5% 373.3% 747.0% **Small sample.** 31 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/21?window=24h) | 4 | 25.79% ±720.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/21?window=7d) | 31 | 6.68% ±258.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/21) | 31 | 6.68% ±258.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/21?window=all) | 31 | 6.68% ±258.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $5,888 5,888 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 81.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-scorched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 96 | $629 629 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 9.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $40.47 40.47 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.3% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.03× | | [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 64 | $29.63 29.63 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| XOXO (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-xoxo-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $22.42 22.42 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-hard-water-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $10.07 10.07 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.2% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× | | [SG 553 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $4.96 4.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.95× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $4.40 4.4 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× | | [R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $2.40 2.4 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 0 | 2.4 | 0.00× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Smarmy (Frog Green) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-smarmy-frog-green) | 1 in 24 | $1.27 1.27 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.55× | | [Gamma 2 Case container · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/gamma-2-case) | 1 in 192 | $1.05 1.05 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ M249 \| Warbird (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-warbird-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $0.58 0.58 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Liquid (Foil) \| 2020 RMR sticker · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-foil-2020-rmr) | 1 in 38 | $0.56 0.56 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Banana graffiti · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-banana) | 1 in 27 | $0.56 0.56 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [Souvenir MP5-SD \| Lab Rats (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp5-sd-lab-rats-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.33 0.33 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 6 | 3.1 | 1.96× | | [AUG \| Surveillance (Factory New) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $0.20 0.2 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| 1G (SWAT Blue) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-1g-swat-blue) | 1 in 14 | $0.18 0.18 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.88× | | [MP5-SD \| Dirt Drop (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-dirt-drop-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.69× | | [Sawed-Off \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.06× | | [Sticker \| gxx- \| Rio 2022 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gxx-rio-2022) | 1 in 12 | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 5 | 2.6 | 1.93× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=21`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=21) [Souvenir MP5-SD | Lab Rats (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp5-sd-lab-rats-field-tested) Hidden $80.00 80 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.33 0.33 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:09 UTC [USP-S | Orange Anolis (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-field-tested) Hidden $80.00 80 CSGOBIG\_COIN $40.47 40.47 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.51x 2026-11-11 08:09 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Smarmy (Frog Green) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-smarmy-frog-green) Hidden $80.00 80 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.27 1.27 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-11 08:09 UTC [USP-S | Orange Anolis (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-field-tested) Hidden $80.00 80 CSGOBIG\_COIN $40.47 40.47 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.51x 2026-11-11 08:09 UTC [Sticker | Liquid (Foil) | 2020 RMR sticker · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-foil-2020-rmr) Hidden $80.00 80 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.56 0.56 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-08 03:59 UTC [SG 553 | Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-candy-apple-factory-new) Hidden $80.00 80 CSGOBIG\_COIN $4.96 4.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-08 03:59 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Smarmy (Frog Green) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-smarmy-frog-green) Hidden $80.00 80 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.27 1.27 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-08 03:59 UTC [Sticker | Liquid (Foil) | 2020 RMR sticker · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-foil-2020-rmr) Hidden $80.00 80 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.56 0.56 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-08 03:59 UTC [Sawed-Off | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-forest-ddpat-field-tested) [waterland](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/waterland) $80.00 80 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 03:59 UTC [Souvenir MP5-SD | Lab Rats (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp5-sd-lab-rats-field-tested) Hidden $80.00 80 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.33 0.33 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-08 03:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $80.00 | 90.00% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.0% gold 1.0% restricted 9.4% mil spec 7.3% classified 9.9% Mil Spec Grade 8.9% industrial 6.8% #B0C3D9 16.7% #4B69FF 15.1% #D32CE6 2.6% Restricted 9.9% grey 5.2% consumer 6.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt