--- title: "Arctic Expedition case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Arctic Expedition ($100.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 78.54% over 27 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/210 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Arctic Expedition](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/210) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Arctic Expedition A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/210?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/210?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/210) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/210?window=all) Price · $100.00 · 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $90.00 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 78.54% · 27 openings, odds method Variance · 39.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 22 openings · below min 30 days · 27 openings · below min since tracking started · 27 openings · below min -0.5% 220.5% 441.5% **Small sample.** 27 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/210?window=24h) | 12 | 86.64% ±354.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/210?window=7d) | 22 | 71.22% ±261.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/210) | 27 | 78.54% ±236.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/210?window=all) | 27 | 78.54% ±236.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 27 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| hazed \| Cologne 2016 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hazed-cologne-2016) | 1 in 200 | $8,790 8,790 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 48.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-bright-water-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $457 457 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 23.0% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.46× | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $210 210 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 21.1% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.82× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 66 | $74.25 74.25 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.2% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $60.18 60.18 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.0% | 4 | 2.0 | 1.97× | | [Katowice 2019 Minor Challengers Autograph Capsule container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/katowice-2019-minor-challengers-autograph-capsule) | 1 in 33 | $5.06 5.06 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [M249 \| Midnight Palm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-midnight-palm-battle-scarred) | 15.1% | $2.16 2.16 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.74× | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Off World (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-off-world-factory-new) | 10.6% | $1.98 1.98 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.35× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-oceanic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $0.28 0.28 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× | | [Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-battle-scarred) | 12.1% | $0.19 0.19 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 3.3 | 0.00× | | [Souvenir CZ75-Auto \| Midnight Palm (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-cz75-auto-midnight-palm-factory-new) | 16.6% | $0.09 0.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 4 | 4.5 | 0.89× | | [Souvenir M249 \| Midnight Palm (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-midnight-palm-field-tested) | 13.6% | $0.08 0.08 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 7 | 3.7 | 1.91× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=210`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=210) [Souvenir M249 | Midnight Palm (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-midnight-palm-field-tested) Hidden $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.08 0.08 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 15:50 UTC [Souvenir M249 | Midnight Palm (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-midnight-palm-field-tested) Hidden $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.08 0.08 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 15:50 UTC [Souvenir CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-cz75-auto-midnight-palm-factory-new) Hidden $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.09 0.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 15:50 UTC [Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) Hidden $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN $60.18 60.18 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.60x 2026-11-10 15:50 UTC [Souvenir CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-cz75-auto-midnight-palm-factory-new) Hidden $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.09 0.09 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 15:50 UTC [Souvenir M249 | Midnight Palm (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-midnight-palm-field-tested) [wankywobbles](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/wankywobbles) $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.08 0.08 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-10 15:50 UTC [M249 | Midnight Palm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-midnight-palm-battle-scarred) Hidden $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.16 2.16 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 15:30 UTC [M249 | Midnight Palm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-midnight-palm-battle-scarred) Hidden $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.16 2.16 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-10 15:30 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Bright Water (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-bright-water-well-worn) Hidden $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN $457 457 CSGOBIG\_COIN 4.57x 2026-11-10 15:30 UTC [Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) Hidden $100 100 CSGOBIG\_COIN $60.18 60.18 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.60x 2026-11-10 15:30 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $100 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed #EB4B4B 0.5% Covert 4.5% covert knife 9.0% classified 9.0% Base Grade 3.0% #5E98D9 28.6% milspec 10.6% Rare 6.0% mil spec 12.1% industrial 16.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt