---
title: "Fantasy Forge case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Fantasy Forge ($450.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 10.93% over 3 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/217
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Fantasy Forge](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/217)

# [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Fantasy Forge

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/217?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/217?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/217) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/217?window=all)

Price · $450.00 · 450 CSGOBIG\_COIN

Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $405.00 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 10.93% · 3 openings, odds method

Variance · 14.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 2 openings · below min

7 days · 2 openings · below min

30 days · 3 openings · below min

since tracking started · 3 openings · below min

-0.5% 267.8% 536.0%

**Small sample.** 3 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/217?window=24h) | 2 | 8.46% ±527.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/217?window=7d) | 2 | 8.46% ±527.0 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/217) | 3 | 10.93% ±430.3 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/217?window=all) | 3 | 10.93% ±430.3 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $12.2K 12,209 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 60.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $960 960 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 17.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Night Stripe (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-night-stripe-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $775 775 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $314 314 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 3.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $130 130 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Souvenir UMP-45 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fade-minimal-wear) | 10.4% | $114 114 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 14.8% | $71.41 71.41 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.6% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $38.32 38.32 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Nightshade (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-nightshade-well-worn) | 13.4% | $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Souvenir AUG \| Carved Jade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-carved-jade-factory-new) | 16.3% | $4.76 4.76 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [M249 \| Midnight Palm (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-midnight-palm-well-worn) | 11.9% | $1.10 1.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Gamma 2 Case container · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/gamma-2-case) | 1 in 34 | $1.05 1.05 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=217`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=217)

[Souvenir AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-carved-jade-factory-new) Hidden $450 450 CSGOBIG\_COIN $4.76 4.76 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-10 15:59 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) Hidden $450 450 CSGOBIG\_COIN $71.41 71.41 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.16x 2026-11-10 15:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $450 | 90.00% | 12 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 2.0% Covert 14.9% covert knife 4.5% classified 10.4% covert 23.7% mil spec 29.7% industrial 11.9% #B0C3D9 3.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt