--- title: "Vintage Vinyl case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Vintage Vinyl ($5.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.15% from 12 items with odds, observed 114.60% over 7 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/220 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:19Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Vintage Vinyl](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/220) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Vintage Vinyl A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/220?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/220?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/220) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/220?window=all) Price · $5.00 · 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.15% · EV $4.51 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 114.60% · 7 openings, odds method Variance · 121.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 89.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 7 openings · below min 30 days · 7 openings · below min since tracking started · 7 openings · below min -0.5% 465.0% 930.5% **Small sample.** 7 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/220?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/220?window=7d) | 7 | 114.60% ±815.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/220) | 7 | 114.60% ±815.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/220?window=all) | 7 | 114.60% ±815.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $5,462 5,462 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 40.7% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $9.84 9.84 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 10.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Lumen (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-lumen-factory-new) | 16.5% | $3.13 3.13 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.5% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.86× | | [Souvenir MP5-SD \| Co-Processor (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp5-sd-co-processor-minimal-wear) | 10.6% | $2.25 2.25 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.3% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $2.10 2.1 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-well-worn) | 15.0% | $1.96 1.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 6.5% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Green Plaid (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-green-plaid-field-tested) | 13.5% | $1.55 1.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 4.7% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [Souvenir SG 553 \| Gator Mesh (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-gator-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $1.44 1.44 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| Army Sheen (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-army-sheen-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $1.08 1.08 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.8% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Chabo graffiti · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-chabo) | 12.1% | $1.05 1.05 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.8% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $0.31 0.31 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=220`, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=220) [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Lumen (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-lumen-factory-new) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $3.13 3.13 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.63x 2026-11-08 04:39 UTC [Souvenir MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp5-sd-co-processor-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.25 2.25 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.45x 2026-11-07 13:59 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Chabo graffiti · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-chabo) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.05 1.05 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.21x 2026-11-07 13:59 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Green Plaid (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-green-plaid-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.55 1.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.31x 2026-11-05 09:29 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Army Sheen (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-army-sheen-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.08 1.08 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.22x 2026-11-05 09:29 UTC [Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $30.00 30 CSGOBIG\_COIN 6.00x 2026-11-05 09:29 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Chabo graffiti · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-chabo) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.05 1.05 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.21x 2026-11-05 09:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.00 | 90.15% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.0% restricted 25.8% #4B69FF 39.2% Classified 3.1% Consumer Grade 13.5% #5E98D9 9.1% Common 7.6% #8847ff 1.7% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.15 on average: an expected loss of $9.85 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt