--- title: "Geometric Gems case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Geometric Gems ($5.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.88% from 12 items with odds, observed 79.91% over 7 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/222 rendered: 2026-11-11T15:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Geometric Gems](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/222) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Geometric Gems A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/222?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/222?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/222) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/222?window=all) Price · $5.00 · 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 89.88% · EV $4.49 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.91% · 7 openings, odds method Variance · 172.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.6% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 66.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 5 openings · below min 30 days · 7 openings · below min since tracking started · 7 openings · below min -0.5% 599.3% 1199.0% **Small sample.** 7 openings and 0.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/222?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/222?window=7d) | 5 | 46.20% ±1152.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/222) | 7 | 79.91% ±973.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/222?window=all) | 7 | 79.91% ±973.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $6,546 6,546 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 14.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| ropz (Gold) \| Rio 2022 sticker · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ropz-gold-rio-2022) | 1 in 66 | $47.56 47.56 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 16.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| Xyp9x (Foil) \| Cologne 2015 sticker · #D32CE6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-xyp9x-foil-cologne-2015) | 1 in 11 | $11.27 11.27 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 22.8% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $6.75 6.75 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.4% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Sticker \| apEX (Foil) \| Boston 2018 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-apex-foil-boston-2018) | 15.1% | $5.15 5.15 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 17.4% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.94× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · #5E98D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-groundwater-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $3.85 3.85 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AUG \| Daedalus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-daedalus-battle-scarred) | 12.1% | $2.85 2.85 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 7.7% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [Nova \| Clear Polymer (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-clear-polymer-well-worn) | 16.7% | $1.35 1.35 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 5.0% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.86× | | [MP7 \| Tall Grass (Field-Tested) weapon · #d2d2d2](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-tall-grass-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $1.00 1 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Dual Berettas \| Tread (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-tread-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.50 0.5 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Sticker \| electronic (Glitter) \| Rio 2022 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-electronic-glitter-rio-2022) | 10.6% | $0.30 0.3 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.7% | 2 | 0.7 | — | | [Sealed Graffiti \| 8-Ball (Blood Red) graffiti · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-8-ball-blood-red) | 13.6% | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 1.0 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=222`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=222) [Nova | Clear Polymer (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-clear-polymer-well-worn) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $1.35 1.35 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.27x 2026-11-08 04:39 UTC [Sticker | electronic (Glitter) | Rio 2022 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-electronic-glitter-rio-2022) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.30 0.3 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-07 13:59 UTC [Sticker | electronic (Glitter) | Rio 2022 sticker · #8847FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-electronic-glitter-rio-2022) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.30 0.3 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.06x 2026-11-05 09:29 UTC [AUG | Daedalus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-daedalus-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $2.85 2.85 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.57x 2026-11-05 09:29 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 5 CSGOBIG\_COIN $6.75 6.75 CSGOBIG\_COIN 1.35x 2026-11-05 09:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.00 | 89.88% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.0% #EB4B4B 1.5% #D32CE6 9.1% covert 7.6% #8847FF 25.7% #5E98D9 3.0% consumer 12.1% violet 16.7% #d2d2d2 4.6% #4b69ff 6.1% Base Grade 13.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.88 on average: an expected loss of $10.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt