--- title: "Graffiti Groove case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Graffiti Groove ($175.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 28.74% over 8 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/226 rendered: 2026-11-11T20:37Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Graffiti Groove](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/226) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Graffiti Groove A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/226?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/226?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/226) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/226?window=all) Price · $175.00 · 175 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $157.50 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 28.74% · 8 openings, odds method Variance · 47.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 200 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 8 openings · below min 30 days · 8 openings · below min since tracking started · 8 openings · below min -0.5% 252.0% 504.5% **Small sample.** 8 openings and 0.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/226?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/226?window=7d) | 8 | 28.74% ±474.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/226) | 8 | 28.74% ±474.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/226?window=all) | 8 | 28.74% ±474.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| HellRaisers (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 200 | $16.9K 16,917 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 53.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $535 535 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 15.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 12.1% | $400 400 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 30.6% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Smarmy (SWAT Blue) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-smarmy-swat-blue) | 1 in 33 | $2.45 2.45 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Hop (Bazooka Pink) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-hop-bazooka-pink) | 13.6% | $1.27 1.27 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Grimace (Cash Green) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-grimace-cash-green) | 1 in 13 | $0.76 0.76 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Fart (Bazooka Pink) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-fart-bazooka-pink) | 1 in 17 | $0.59 0.59 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Chef Kiss (Blood Red) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-chef-kiss-blood-red) | 16.6% | $0.55 0.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.51× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Little EZ (Cash Green) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-little-ez-cash-green) | 1 in 11 | $0.30 0.3 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Goofy (Desert Amber) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-goofy-desert-amber) | 1 in 66 | $0.19 0.19 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Heart (Monster Purple) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-heart-monster-purple) | 15.1% | $0.16 0.16 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Popdog (Desert Amber) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-popdog-desert-amber) | 10.6% | $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 1 | 0.8 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=226`, 11 Nov, 19:23 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=226) [Sealed Graffiti | Chef Kiss (Blood Red) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-chef-kiss-blood-red) Hidden $175 175 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.55 0.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 21:50 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Popdog (Desert Amber) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-popdog-desert-amber) Hidden $175 175 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 21:50 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $175 175 CSGOBIG\_COIN $400 400 CSGOBIG\_COIN 2.29x 2026-11-09 21:50 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Heart (Monster Purple) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-heart-monster-purple) [beN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgobig/beN) $175 175 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.16 0.16 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 21:50 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Goofy (Desert Amber) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-goofy-desert-amber) Hidden $175 175 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.19 0.19 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 21:50 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Little EZ (Cash Green) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-little-ez-cash-green) Hidden $175 175 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.30 0.3 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-09 21:50 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Fart (Bazooka Pink) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-fart-bazooka-pink) Hidden $175 175 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.59 0.59 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-07 00:59 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | Chef Kiss (Blood Red) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-chef-kiss-blood-red) Hidden $175 175 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.55 0.55 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.00x 2026-11-07 00:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $175 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 0.5% covert 4.5% covert knife 12.1% #B0C3D9 67.8% Common 15.1% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt