--- title: "Samurai Saga case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Samurai Saga ($50.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 71.71% over 51 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/235 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Samurai Saga](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/235) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Samurai Saga A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/235?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/235?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/235) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/235?window=all) Price · $50.00 · 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $45.00 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 71.71% · 51 openings, odds method Variance · 43.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 200 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 7 openings · below min 7 days · 33 openings · below min 30 days · 51 openings · below min since tracking started · 51 openings · below min -0.5% 250.5% 501.5% **Small sample.** 51 openings and 0.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/235?window=24h) | 7 | 9.80% ±491.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/235?window=7d) | 33 | 31.95% ±226.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/235) | 51 | 71.71% ±181.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/235?window=all) | 51 | 71.71% ±181.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 51 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $4,561 4,561 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 50.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-rust-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $416 416 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 41.9% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.73× | | [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) | 12.1% | $10.35 10.35 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.8% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.81× | | [Souvenir AWP \| Acheron (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-acheron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $9.84 9.84 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.3% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [Music Kit \| Proxy, Battlepack music kit · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-proxy-battlepack) | 15.1% | $5.28 5.28 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.8% | 6 | 7.7 | 0.78× | | [P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-field-tested) | 13.6% | $3.69 3.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.1% | 7 | 6.9 | 1.01× | | [Sticker \| autimatic \| Krakow 2017 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-autimatic-krakow-2017) | 1 in 13 | $3.60 3.6 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.04× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #F2F8FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-umbral-rabbit-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $2.79 2.79 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.30× | | [MAG-7 \| Petroglyph (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-petroglyph-well-worn) | 10.6% | $0.82 0.82 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 4 | 5.4 | 0.74× | | [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) | 16.6% | $0.51 0.51 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 9 | 8.5 | 1.06× | | [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Scumbria (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-scumbria-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.38 0.38 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [Sealed Graffiti \| Fart (Monarch Blue) graffiti · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-fart-monarch-blue) | 1 in 11 | $0.38 0.38 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.30× | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=235`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=235) [Sticker | autimatic | Krakow 2017 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-autimatic-krakow-2017) Hidden $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN $3.60 3.6 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-11 11:09 UTC [USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) Hidden $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.51 0.51 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 05:29 UTC [Music Kit | Proxy, Battlepack music kit · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/music-kit-proxy-battlepack) Hidden $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN $5.28 5.28 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.11x 2026-11-11 05:29 UTC [StatTrak™ MP9 | Hydra (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) Hidden $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN $10.35 10.35 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.21x 2026-11-11 01:39 UTC [P250 | Muertos (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-field-tested) Hidden $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN $3.69 3.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-11 01:39 UTC [USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) Hidden $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN $0.51 0.51 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.01x 2026-11-11 01:39 UTC [StatTrak™ MP9 | Hydra (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) Hidden $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN $10.35 10.35 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.21x 2026-11-11 01:39 UTC [P250 | Muertos (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-field-tested) Hidden $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN $3.69 3.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-10 09:39 UTC [P250 | Muertos (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-field-tested) Hidden $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN $3.69 3.69 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-10 09:39 UTC [StatTrak™ MP9 | Hydra (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) Hidden $50.00 50 CSGOBIG\_COIN $10.35 10.35 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.21x 2026-11-09 22:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $50.00 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.5% covert knife 4.5% classified 25.6% #4B69FF 9.1% blue 15.1% #F2F8FF 6.0% violet 10.6% restricted 16.6% milspec 3.0% #B0C3D9 9.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt