--- title: "Lunar Legacy case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Lunar Legacy ($150.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 6.98% over 1 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/238 rendered: 2026-11-11T18:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Lunar Legacy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/238) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Lunar Legacy A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/238?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/238?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/238) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/238?window=all) Price · $150.00 · 150 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $135.00 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 6.98% · 1 openings, odds method Variance · 50.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 66.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 1 openings · below min 30 days · 1 openings · below min since tracking started · 1 openings · below min -0.5% 699.0% 1398.5% **Small sample.** 1 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/238?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/238?window=7d) | 1 | 6.98% ±1390.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/238) | 1 | 6.98% ±1390.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/238?window=all) | 1 | 6.98% ±1390.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [EMS Katowice 2014 Challengers other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-challengers) | 1 in 1,000 | $33.7K 33,668 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 24.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $286 286 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 10.6% | $181 181 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 14.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-night-well-worn) | 16.6% | $179 179 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 22.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Souvenir UMP-45 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fade-minimal-wear) | 15.1% | $114 114 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 12.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Survival Knife \| Night Stripe (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-night-stripe-well-worn) | 13.6% | $111 111 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 11.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $40.73 40.73 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-well-worn) | 1 in 66 | $11.01 11.01 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $10.47 10.47 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-copper-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $6.07 6.07 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [P250 \| Forest Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-forest-night-minimal-wear) | 12.1% | $0.12 0.12 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [P250 \| Forest Night (Battle-Scarred) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-forest-night-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $0.08 0.08 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=238`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=238) [M4A4 | Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) Hidden $150 150 CSGOBIG\_COIN $10.47 10.47 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.07x 2026-11-07 19:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $150 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed base 0.1% #ffd700 6.1% covert 10.6% Covert 16.6% classified 22.7% covert knife 13.6% Classified 3.0% restricted 10.6% gray 16.7% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt