--- title: "Excess Earnings case on CSGOBig: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Excess Earnings ($600.00) on CSGOBig, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.00% from 12 items with odds, observed 6.33% over 5 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/251 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) / [Excess Earnings](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/251) # [CSGOBig](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgobig) · Excess Earnings A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/251?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/251?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/251) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/251?window=all) Price · $600.00 · 600 CSGOBIG\_COIN Advertised RTP · 90.00% · EV $540.00 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 6.33% · 5 openings, odds method Variance · 41.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 5 openings · below min 30 days · 5 openings · below min since tracking started · 5 openings · below min -0.5% 284.5% 569.5% **Small sample.** 5 openings and 0.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/251?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/251?window=7d) | 5 | 6.33% ±562.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/251) | 5 | 6.33% ±562.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgobig/251?window=all) | 5 | 6.33% ±562.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $56K 56,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 25.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 400 | $42K 42,000 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 19.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $21.5K 21,500 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 19.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $9,330 9,330 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 8.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-eye-of-horus-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $1,249 1,249 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 19.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 35 | $369 369 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 1.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 13.7% | $92.82 92.82 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 2.3% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $56.80 56.8 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Sticker \| Team Dignitas \| Cologne 2014 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-cologne-2014) | 11.0% | $31.63 31.63 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Sticker \| Magic Rush Ball (Lenticular) sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-magic-rush-ball-lenticular) | 16.4% | $25.96 25.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.8% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [Souvenir MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 21.8% | $13.49 13.49 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.5% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.92× | | [Sticker \| XANTARES \| Boston 2018 sticker · #4B69FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-xantares-boston-2018) | 19.1% | $4.87 4.87 CSGOBIG\_COIN | 0.2% | 0 | 1.0 | — | Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=251`, 11 Nov, 13:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgobig&case=251) [★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $600 600 CSGOBIG\_COIN $92.82 92.82 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.15x 2026-11-05 01:49 UTC [Sticker | Magic Rush Ball (Lenticular) sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-magic-rush-ball-lenticular) Hidden $600 600 CSGOBIG\_COIN $25.96 25.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-05 01:49 UTC [Sticker | Team Dignitas | Cologne 2014 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-cologne-2014) Hidden $600 600 CSGOBIG\_COIN $31.63 31.63 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.05x 2026-11-05 01:49 UTC [Sticker | Magic Rush Ball (Lenticular) sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-magic-rush-ball-lenticular) Hidden $600 600 CSGOBIG\_COIN $25.96 25.96 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.04x 2026-11-05 01:49 UTC [Souvenir MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mac-10-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $600 600 CSGOBIG\_COIN $13.49 13.49 CSGOBIG\_COIN 0.02x 2026-11-05 01:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $600 | 90.00% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 15.2% Covert 8.2% #EB4B4B 2.8% classified 5.5% violet 11.0% extraordinary 16.4% restricted 21.8% #4B69FF 19.1% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.00 on average: an expected loss of $10.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt